The Wrong Question
The 23 August Baseball Weekly poses this question:
How, indeed? 22 wins and a Cy Young runner-up are a difficult act to follow. But I think Baseball Weekly asked the wrong question by focusing only on Willis’ win and BBWAA vote totals.
No matter how great a pitcher is, his win total will always be influenced by factors beyond his control – most notably, how good the team behind him is (although this is not the only factor involved). I think it’s fair to say that none of us expected Willis to win 22 games again this year – not after Loria the Destroyer got his claws into the team.
But some of Willis’ other numbers indicate that he would win 22 games, even if he pitched for the Tigers. And these are numbers Willis has more control over than he has over his win count.
Most glaring is his strike out to walk ratio. Last year, his ratio was 170 K to 55 BB, or 3.09 whiffs for every free pass. This year, he’s struck out 126 (in 179.1 innings), but he’s also allowed 67 walks – a ratio of 1.88.
And while Willis has already walked more batters this year than last, he’s also hit more batters – 16 YTD, compared with only 8 for all of 2005. I’m not smart enough to know if that means he’s been a little wild, or if it’s indicative of a more serious control problem. Marlins Fans, any thoughts?
A more concerning issue is Willis’ home run rate. Last year, he served up 11 homers in 236 innings (averaging one home run about every 21 innings). His numbers this year are 16 dingers in 179 innings (one homer about every 11 innings).
Other numbers seem to indicate that he’s more hittable, too. The league is hitting .293 against him (up 50 points from last year), and slugging .413 off him (up 61 points). And with all the walks and hit batters, it’s not a surprise to see the league’s got a .370 OBP against him (compared to .292 last year).
Some of this discrepancy must be accounted for by the Marlins’ defense. Alas, I couldn’t find a listing for defensive efficiency or zone rating that doesn’t involve a subscription. So I’m in the dark on this one. Can anyone (Jim, perhaps?) shed some light?
At any rate, given Willis’ peripheral numbers, it seems highly unlikely that he could have matched his magical 2005 season – but you can’t blame that on the rookies, or on the Destroyer scattering the team to the four winds.
Dontrelle Willis arrived in spring training to questions about whether he would come close to matching the numbers he posed in his career 2005 season.
After all, Willis led the majors with 22 wins and finished second in the NL Cy Young Award voting while pitching for a lineup of All-Stars and veterans. So how could be possibly duplicate those numbers in 2006 with a lineup loaded with rookies?
How, indeed? 22 wins and a Cy Young runner-up are a difficult act to follow. But I think Baseball Weekly asked the wrong question by focusing only on Willis’ win and BBWAA vote totals.
No matter how great a pitcher is, his win total will always be influenced by factors beyond his control – most notably, how good the team behind him is (although this is not the only factor involved). I think it’s fair to say that none of us expected Willis to win 22 games again this year – not after Loria the Destroyer got his claws into the team.
But some of Willis’ other numbers indicate that he would win 22 games, even if he pitched for the Tigers. And these are numbers Willis has more control over than he has over his win count.
Most glaring is his strike out to walk ratio. Last year, his ratio was 170 K to 55 BB, or 3.09 whiffs for every free pass. This year, he’s struck out 126 (in 179.1 innings), but he’s also allowed 67 walks – a ratio of 1.88.
And while Willis has already walked more batters this year than last, he’s also hit more batters – 16 YTD, compared with only 8 for all of 2005. I’m not smart enough to know if that means he’s been a little wild, or if it’s indicative of a more serious control problem. Marlins Fans, any thoughts?
A more concerning issue is Willis’ home run rate. Last year, he served up 11 homers in 236 innings (averaging one home run about every 21 innings). His numbers this year are 16 dingers in 179 innings (one homer about every 11 innings).
Other numbers seem to indicate that he’s more hittable, too. The league is hitting .293 against him (up 50 points from last year), and slugging .413 off him (up 61 points). And with all the walks and hit batters, it’s not a surprise to see the league’s got a .370 OBP against him (compared to .292 last year).
Some of this discrepancy must be accounted for by the Marlins’ defense. Alas, I couldn’t find a listing for defensive efficiency or zone rating that doesn’t involve a subscription. So I’m in the dark on this one. Can anyone (Jim, perhaps?) shed some light?
At any rate, given Willis’ peripheral numbers, it seems highly unlikely that he could have matched his magical 2005 season – but you can’t blame that on the rookies, or on the Destroyer scattering the team to the four winds.
posted by Bob at
9:56 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home