There's No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect

Baseball Prospectus uses that (usually abreviated as TNSTAAPP) when discussing young pitchers, the idea being that there are so many things that can go wrong with a young pitcher that the ones who make it are survivors, not prospects. There is certainly more than an element of truth to it. If you read all the way through the Peter Gammons piece that I just posted, you saw him discussing this, with a chart of the top 10 pitching prospects, year by year, since 1990, as named by Baseball America. I'm going to crib from him nw (hey, everyone cribs from Peter Gammons at some point) and reprint the list here, because I want to make a few points of my own.


Baseball America's Top 10 Pitching Prospects, 1990-2006

1990
1. Steve Avery, Atl
2. Ben McDonald, Bal
3. Kiki Jones, LA
4. Darryl Kile, Hou
5. Willie Banks, Min
6. Mike Harkey, Cubs
7. Roger Salkeld, Sea
8. Mike Stanton, Atl
9. Pat Combs, Phi
10. Rafael Valdez, SD

1991
1. Todd Van Poppel, Oak
2. Roger Salkeld, Sea
3. Arthur Rhodes, Bal
4. Willie Banks, Min
5. Rich Garces, Min
6. Mike Mussina, Balt
7. Reid Cornelius, Mon
8. Kurt Miller, Pit
9. Anthony Young, Mets
10. Kirk Dressendorfer, Oak

1992
1. Brien Taylor, NYY
2. Todd Van Poppel, Oak
3. Roger Salkeld, Sea
4. Arthur Rhodes, Bal
5. Frankie Rodriguez, Bos
6. Pedro Martinez, LAD
7. Mark Wohlers, Atl
8. Kurt Miller, Tex
9. Tyrone Hill, Mil
10. Lance Dickson, ChC

1993
1. Brien Taylor, NYY
2. Todd Van Poppel, Oak
3. Jason Bere, ChW
4. Allen Watson, Stl
5. Tyrone Hill, Mil
6. Kurt Miller, Tex
7. Tavo Alvarez, Mon
8. Brad Pennington, Bal
9. David Nied, Col
10. Frankie Rodriguez, Bos

1994
1. James Baldwin, ChW
2. Jose Silva, Tor
3. Darren Dreifort, LAD
4. Steve Karsay, Oak
5. Chan Ho Park, LAD
6. Brien Taylor, NYY
7. Jeff Granger, Kan
8. Bill Pulsipher, NYM
9. Salomon Torres, SF
10. Terrell Wade, Atl

1995
1. Armando Benitez, Bal
2. Bill Pulsipher, NYM
3. Alan Benes, StL
4. Antonio Osuna, LAD
5. Paul Wilson, NYM
6. Billy Wagner, Hou
7. Dustin Hermanson, SD
8. Doug Million, Col
9. Scott Ruffcorn, ChW
10. James Baldwin, ChW

1996
1. Paul Wilson, NYM
2. Alan Benes, Stl
3. Livan Hernandez, Fla
4. Jason Schmidt, Atl
5. Matt Drews, NYY
6. Billy Wagner, Hou
7. Bartolo Colon, Cle
8. Kerry Wood, ChC
9. Chan Ho Park, LAD
10. Rocky Coppinger, Bal

1997
1. Kerry Wood, ChC
2. Matt White, Tam
3. Kris Benson, Pit
4. Bartolo Colon, Cle
5. Carl Pavano, Bos
6. Jaret Wright, Cle
7. Livan Hernandez, Fla
8. Matt Morris, Stl
9. Chris Carpenter, Tor
10. Braden Looper, Stl

1998
1. Kerry Wood, ChC
2. Matt White, Tam
3. Kris Benson, Pit
4. Carl Pavano, Mon
5. Matt Clement, SD
6. Rick Ankiel, Stl
7. Brian Rose, Bos
8. Ryan Anderson, Sea
9. Matt Anderson, Det
10. Eric Milton, Min

1999
1. Rick Ankiel, Stl
2. Bruce Chen, Atl
3. Brad Penny, Ari
4. Ryan Anderson, Sea
5. Matt Clement, SD
6. Roy Halladay, Tor
7. Bobby Bradley, Pit
8. Chris George, KC
9. Donnie Bridges, Mon
10. Matt Belisle, Atl

2000
1. Rick Ankiel, Stl
2. Ryan Anderson, Sea
3. Mark Mulder, Oak
4. Kip Wells, ChW
5. Matt Riley, Bal
6. Josh Beckett, Fla
7. A.J. Burnett. Fla
8. Brad Penny, Fla
9. Wilfredo Rodriguez, Hou
10. Tony Armas, Mont

2001
1. Josh Beckett, Fla
2. Jon Rauch, ChW
3. Ben Sheets, Milw
4. C.C. Sabathia, Cle
5. Roy Oswalt, Hou
6. Chin-Hui Tsao, Col
7. Juan Cruz, ChC
8. Jerome Williams, SF
9. Bobby Bradley, Pit
10. Chris George, KC

2002
1. Josh Beckett, Fla
2. Mark Prior, ChC
3. Juan Cruz, ChC
4. Ryan Anderson, Sea
5. Dennis Tankersley, SD
6. Nick Neugebauer, Mil
7. Jerome Williams, SF
8. Jon Rauch, ChW
9. Carlos Hernandez, Hou
10. Ty Howington, Cin

2003
1. Jesse Foppert, SF
2. Jose Contreras, NYY
3. Gavin Floyd, Phi
4. Francisco Rodriguez, LAA
5. Scott Kazmir, NYM
6. Adam Wainwright, Atl
7. Jeremy Bonderman, Det
8. John Van Benschoten, Pitt
9. Sean Burnett, Pit
10. Rafael Soriano, Sea

2004
1. Edwin Jackson, LAD
2. Greg Miller, LAD
3. Scott Kazmir, NYM
4. Adam Loewen, Balt
5. Zach Greinke, KC
6. Cole Hamels, Phi
7. Dustin Magowan, Tor
8. Gavin Floyd, Phi
9. Chi-Hui Tsao, Colo
10. Angel Guzman, ChC

2005
1. Felix Hernandez, Sea
2. Scott Kazmir, TB
3. Matt Cain, SF
4. Adam Miller, Cle
5. Chad Billingsley, LAD
6. Jeff Niemann, TB
7. Jeff Francis, Col
8. Jose Capellan, Mil
9. Mike Hinckley, Was
10. Edwin Jackson, LAD

2006
1. Francisco Liriano, Minn
2. Chad Billingsley, LAD
3. Justin Verlander, Det
4. Matt Cain, SF
5. Jon Lester, Bos
6. Bobby Jenks, ChW
7. Scott Olsen, Fla
8. Joel Zumaya, Det
9. Mike Pelfrey, NYM
10. Jonathan Papelbon, Bos

Wow, look at that 1991 list. Mussina went on to become a great pitcher, and Rhodes became very effective once he was shifted to the bullpen. The rest of the list is as big a group of flameouts as you could imagine. The first several years are all like that, a scattering of Pedro Martinez and Mussina and a few modest successes surrounded by Brien Taylor and Roger Salkeld and Tyrone Hill and Lance Dickson.

But look at the lists since 2000. The 2000 list is topped by two of the most famous flameouts since Karl Spooner in Rick Ankiel and Ryan Anderson. But below them are Mark Mulder, Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett, and Brad Penny, all of whom have had a bit of success. Each of the top five in 2001 has become a successful major league pitcher, and look at 2003. There is the usual group of failures, but if you had Scott Kazmir, Jeremy Bonderman, and Jose Contreras in your rotation and Francisco Rodriguez, Rafael Soriano, and Adam Wainwright in your bullpen, I'd say your staff was pretty decent.

And check out 2006. I'd say that they nailed it pretty well, wouldn't you?

So, what are my points? First, I think that the difference in the success rates of 1990 and 2006 are due in large part to the increased input of knowledge brought into the game by the performance analyst community. Now, before you bring out the cat 'o nine tails and lash me for my disrespect of traditional scouting, let me make this clear. I don't think that it's because scouts who drive around the country and watch high school kids play games in the rain in Billings, Montana are fools who should go the way of the dodo, nor do I think that performance analysts are geniuses who are saving the game from themselves. What I am saying is that the wedding of new information to old is making player development and thus, the game, better.

Second, it's easy to overdo the excitement about the 2006 group. Having success one time around the league is one thing, lasting as long as Mike Mussina is another. Liriano and Papelbon, wildly successful this year, have both suffered injuries. There are plenty of red flags flying around Bobby Jenks, and Jon Lester's story is just plain sad. It's altogether possible that in ten years this group could look just like the 1990 group that featured Steve Avery, Ben McDonald, and Daryl Kile, all of whom looked pretty damn good for a few years.

Third, teams are much, much more protective of their young pitchers than ever before. As Bob pointed out, all of the protective measures such as pitch counts are not guarantees of health, but taken as a whole they are very effective, much more so than the pond dunking method of testing pitchers previously used.

And, this list gives Bob another opportunity to beat me over the head with Roger Salkeld. As has been said, TNSTAAPP.