Piazza Delivery
The 2005 San Diego Padres were living proof that any team, no matter how mediocre, can get into the playoffs, if the other teams in their division are all even worse. The Pads had more ups and downs than a day at Great America, finished with an unimpressive 82-80 record, but took advantage of the Bonds-less Giants, the injury-riddled Dodgers, and the clueless Diamondback and Rockies to stumble to the NL West title. Loud was the horrified outcry of baseball pundits who feared that such a weak team might get lucky and win the World Series, but the Cardinals made short and predicatable work of the matter, crushing the Pads in three straight games.
Projected 2006 Lineup:
LF Dave Roberts
2B Josh Barfield
RF Brian Giles
C Mike Piazza
1B Ryan Klesko
CF Mike Cameron
3B Vinny Castilla
SS Khalil Greene
Among their many deficiencies, the 2005 Padres lacked power. The Pads home park doesn't help the situation; it's one of the toughest home runs parks in the majors. The Pads added Mike Piazza and Vinny Castilla in misguided attempts to improve the situation. Piazza, even at 70% of his former self, is still an above average hitter for a catcher, but probably won't provide any more offense than Ramon Hernandez, the man he's replacing. Castilla is a proven stiff any time he's not playing in a home park 5431 feet above sea level. The other major addition to the lineup, Cameron, is an exceptional defense centerfielder and should contribute 18-20 homers.
The infield is full of issues. Klesko is aging, and none too gracefully. Greene has some power, but hasn't shown command of the strike zone. Castilla, as mentioned, sucks, although he is a superior defensive third baseman, and at the very least he'll do better than the .299 slugging average posted by last year's third baseman. Barfield is a top prospect who should hit better than the average second baseman, although his glove work has been a question mark.
Projected 2006 Starting Rotation and Bullpen:
SP Jake Peavy
SP Chris Young
SP Woody Williams
SP Shawn Estes
SP Chan Ho Park
CL Trevor Hoffman
RP Scott Linebrink
RP Clay Hensley
RP Alan Embree
RP Doug Brocail
Peavy, assuming he'll be healthy, is one of the four or five best starting pitchers in the league. Chris Young is on my short list of breakout candidates for this year; he pitched very well in Texas as a rookie and is moving from an extreme hitters park to an extreme pitchers park. The rest of the rotation needs fresh blood, fast. Clay Hensley, who pitched very well in relief for the Pads last year, could take one of the spots, and watch out for Cesar Carillo, the Pads first pick in the 2005 draft, who reached the AA level last year quite successfully. Carillo could well be in the rotation by June.
Trevor Hoffman isn't still THE Trevor Hoffman who is one of the greatest closers ever, but he's still effective and could pass Lee Smith as the all-time leader in career saves this year. The Padres have done an exceptional job for the past several years of building very effective bullpens out of spare parts. Scott Linebrink has been exceptional for the past two years, a perfect example of the scrap-heap combing that the team has done so well. This year's front-runner to come out of nowhere is Steve Andrade, a refugee from the Angels' system.
An interesting sideshow on the Padres roster is the presence of three spectacular first round failures, all acquired over the winter as salvage projects, Seth Etherton, Dewon Brazelton, and Kenny Baugh. If the Pads get lucky with one in three, they've done something, not that I'd bet on it but it's kind of fun to watch.
The Padres probably haven't really improved much over last year. I can see them reaching 85 wins, but with the Dodgers getting their act together and the Giants having a healthy Bonds, the Pads will be facing real opposition. I can't see them returning to the postseason.
Projected 2006 Lineup:
LF Dave Roberts
2B Josh Barfield
RF Brian Giles
C Mike Piazza
1B Ryan Klesko
CF Mike Cameron
3B Vinny Castilla
SS Khalil Greene
Among their many deficiencies, the 2005 Padres lacked power. The Pads home park doesn't help the situation; it's one of the toughest home runs parks in the majors. The Pads added Mike Piazza and Vinny Castilla in misguided attempts to improve the situation. Piazza, even at 70% of his former self, is still an above average hitter for a catcher, but probably won't provide any more offense than Ramon Hernandez, the man he's replacing. Castilla is a proven stiff any time he's not playing in a home park 5431 feet above sea level. The other major addition to the lineup, Cameron, is an exceptional defense centerfielder and should contribute 18-20 homers.
The infield is full of issues. Klesko is aging, and none too gracefully. Greene has some power, but hasn't shown command of the strike zone. Castilla, as mentioned, sucks, although he is a superior defensive third baseman, and at the very least he'll do better than the .299 slugging average posted by last year's third baseman. Barfield is a top prospect who should hit better than the average second baseman, although his glove work has been a question mark.
Projected 2006 Starting Rotation and Bullpen:
SP Jake Peavy
SP Chris Young
SP Woody Williams
SP Shawn Estes
SP Chan Ho Park
CL Trevor Hoffman
RP Scott Linebrink
RP Clay Hensley
RP Alan Embree
RP Doug Brocail
Peavy, assuming he'll be healthy, is one of the four or five best starting pitchers in the league. Chris Young is on my short list of breakout candidates for this year; he pitched very well in Texas as a rookie and is moving from an extreme hitters park to an extreme pitchers park. The rest of the rotation needs fresh blood, fast. Clay Hensley, who pitched very well in relief for the Pads last year, could take one of the spots, and watch out for Cesar Carillo, the Pads first pick in the 2005 draft, who reached the AA level last year quite successfully. Carillo could well be in the rotation by June.
Trevor Hoffman isn't still THE Trevor Hoffman who is one of the greatest closers ever, but he's still effective and could pass Lee Smith as the all-time leader in career saves this year. The Padres have done an exceptional job for the past several years of building very effective bullpens out of spare parts. Scott Linebrink has been exceptional for the past two years, a perfect example of the scrap-heap combing that the team has done so well. This year's front-runner to come out of nowhere is Steve Andrade, a refugee from the Angels' system.
An interesting sideshow on the Padres roster is the presence of three spectacular first round failures, all acquired over the winter as salvage projects, Seth Etherton, Dewon Brazelton, and Kenny Baugh. If the Pads get lucky with one in three, they've done something, not that I'd bet on it but it's kind of fun to watch.
The Padres probably haven't really improved much over last year. I can see them reaching 85 wins, but with the Dodgers getting their act together and the Giants having a healthy Bonds, the Pads will be facing real opposition. I can't see them returning to the postseason.
posted by Jim at
10:00 AM
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