Toronto Preview: If I Had a Million Dollars
Under GM J.P. Ricciardi's guidance, the Blue Jays have gone from a team that was going nowhere fast to a team, while still going nowhere because it played in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox, was at least competitive and getting better.
Ricciardi accomplished this with the Moneyball tactics he learned during his time with A's. But even a stat geek like Ricciardi wouldn't pass up the opportunity to spend a little more cash. So when ownership offered him a substantial increase in payroll, he took the money and ran
After Ricciardi made his splash in the free agent pool, and pulled off a pair of fairly high-profile trades, the Jays look to improve on their 80-82 mark, and perhaps even contend for the playoff spot that has eluded them since 1993.
1. Enough with gab. Just tell me how good Burnett and Ryan are going to be.
The Blue Jays had the best ERA in the AL East (4.06) last year. But you know the old saying -- you can never have enough pitching. And what better way for Ricciardi to spend his boss' money than by picking up the two biggest pitching names on the market -- A.J. Burnett and B.J. Ryan. No word on whether or not the Jays were looking to sign C.J. Nitkowski and D.J. Dozier to round out their collection.
Despite the big bucks these two guys are getting, I'm not entirely sold on them. Burnett has a history of injuries and a history of not winning more than 12 games a year. He'll either be a bargain or an expensive albatross in the fifth year of his deal.
Ryan was the best closer available, which might be more an indictment on the available closer than an endorsement of his talent. But Ricciardi saw enough to sign him to a long-term deal, which has the same risks and rewards as Burnett's.
These signings did have a value-add. Adding these guys gave Ricciardi some excess pitching, which he was able to use in his trades. With Ryan on board, Miguel Batista became expendable, and was swapped for Troy Glaus. And Burnett pushed David Bush out of the rotation; Bush went to Milwaukee as part of the Lyle Overbay trade.
If Burnett can stay healthy, the Blue Jays might have the best rotation in the division (with Roy Halladay, Gustavo Chacin, Josh Towers, and Ted Lilly). While I'm not on the Ryan bandwagon, Batista isn't that hard to replace, and the rest of the bullpen is extremely capable.
2. Will Glaus and Overbay kick the offense up a notch?
The Jays ranked fifth in the AL in runs scored, which sounds pretty good. But they were also ninth in the league in OPS, which sounds pretty mediocre.
I don't know how much of an impact Glaus will have on that. He'll have to stay healthy and keep his power stroke going to be of any value this year, because as a third baseman he's a pretty good ottoman. Overbay won't threaten Bonds' home run record, but his OPS skills will be welcome in the middle of the lineup.
The Jays will have to shuffle around their lineup to accommodate these guys. Glaus and Overbay will take over the corner infield spots. Shea Hillenbrand will probably see some time at third if Glaus can't hack it there. Erstwhile Rookie of the Year Eric Hinske is now in the process of learning the outfield, his third position in three years. He might not get a chance at a fourth if he can't improve his .763 OPS.
With Orlando Hudson shuffled off to Phoenix as part of the Glaus deal, second base is open. Aaron Hill will probably get first, with Russ Adams at short.
The probable outfield of Frank Catalanotto, Vernon Wells, and Alex Rios is talented, but lacks the power expected of outfielders.
3. Can the new guys push the Blue Jays over the top?
On paper, the top teams in the AL East are New York, Boston, and Toronto. On paper, the Yankee and Red Sox offenses still look like they can hit rings around the Jays.
But on paper, the Jays have the best rotation, and you could make a decent argument that (on paper, at least) they have a better bullpen. And, on paper (birth certificates, to be exact), the Jays have and advantage.
Fairly or unfairly, the fate of this Blue Jays team will be tied into the performances of its four major acquisitions. Expect them to perform somewhere around their established levels.
But if the pitching can maintain its best-in-the-division status, that might be enough for them to take the Wild Card, or even (with a little more luck) the division title. And if that happens, no one will accuse Ricciardi of spending his money foolishly...
Ricciardi accomplished this with the Moneyball tactics he learned during his time with A's. But even a stat geek like Ricciardi wouldn't pass up the opportunity to spend a little more cash. So when ownership offered him a substantial increase in payroll, he took the money and ran
After Ricciardi made his splash in the free agent pool, and pulled off a pair of fairly high-profile trades, the Jays look to improve on their 80-82 mark, and perhaps even contend for the playoff spot that has eluded them since 1993.
1. Enough with gab. Just tell me how good Burnett and Ryan are going to be.
The Blue Jays had the best ERA in the AL East (4.06) last year. But you know the old saying -- you can never have enough pitching. And what better way for Ricciardi to spend his boss' money than by picking up the two biggest pitching names on the market -- A.J. Burnett and B.J. Ryan. No word on whether or not the Jays were looking to sign C.J. Nitkowski and D.J. Dozier to round out their collection.
Despite the big bucks these two guys are getting, I'm not entirely sold on them. Burnett has a history of injuries and a history of not winning more than 12 games a year. He'll either be a bargain or an expensive albatross in the fifth year of his deal.
Ryan was the best closer available, which might be more an indictment on the available closer than an endorsement of his talent. But Ricciardi saw enough to sign him to a long-term deal, which has the same risks and rewards as Burnett's.
These signings did have a value-add. Adding these guys gave Ricciardi some excess pitching, which he was able to use in his trades. With Ryan on board, Miguel Batista became expendable, and was swapped for Troy Glaus. And Burnett pushed David Bush out of the rotation; Bush went to Milwaukee as part of the Lyle Overbay trade.
If Burnett can stay healthy, the Blue Jays might have the best rotation in the division (with Roy Halladay, Gustavo Chacin, Josh Towers, and Ted Lilly). While I'm not on the Ryan bandwagon, Batista isn't that hard to replace, and the rest of the bullpen is extremely capable.
2. Will Glaus and Overbay kick the offense up a notch?
The Jays ranked fifth in the AL in runs scored, which sounds pretty good. But they were also ninth in the league in OPS, which sounds pretty mediocre.
I don't know how much of an impact Glaus will have on that. He'll have to stay healthy and keep his power stroke going to be of any value this year, because as a third baseman he's a pretty good ottoman. Overbay won't threaten Bonds' home run record, but his OPS skills will be welcome in the middle of the lineup.
The Jays will have to shuffle around their lineup to accommodate these guys. Glaus and Overbay will take over the corner infield spots. Shea Hillenbrand will probably see some time at third if Glaus can't hack it there. Erstwhile Rookie of the Year Eric Hinske is now in the process of learning the outfield, his third position in three years. He might not get a chance at a fourth if he can't improve his .763 OPS.
With Orlando Hudson shuffled off to Phoenix as part of the Glaus deal, second base is open. Aaron Hill will probably get first, with Russ Adams at short.
The probable outfield of Frank Catalanotto, Vernon Wells, and Alex Rios is talented, but lacks the power expected of outfielders.
3. Can the new guys push the Blue Jays over the top?
On paper, the top teams in the AL East are New York, Boston, and Toronto. On paper, the Yankee and Red Sox offenses still look like they can hit rings around the Jays.
But on paper, the Jays have the best rotation, and you could make a decent argument that (on paper, at least) they have a better bullpen. And, on paper (birth certificates, to be exact), the Jays have and advantage.
Fairly or unfairly, the fate of this Blue Jays team will be tied into the performances of its four major acquisitions. Expect them to perform somewhere around their established levels.
But if the pitching can maintain its best-in-the-division status, that might be enough for them to take the Wild Card, or even (with a little more luck) the division title. And if that happens, no one will accuse Ricciardi of spending his money foolishly...
posted by Bob at
8:25 PM
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