Packing One’s Personal Baggage into Statistical Analysis (or, Clutch Cargo)

Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal provides a terrific example of how easy it is to use statistics to “prove” whatever script you happen to be peddling:

The Yankees' Alex Rodriguez is drawing criticism for his performance in close-and-late situations, which are defined by STATS, Inc. as those that occur in the seventh inning or later with the batting team ahead by one run tied or with the tying run on base, at bat or on deck. Miguel Cairo is the only Yankee with a worse close-and-late OPS than Rodriguez, but look at the bright side: Rodriguez is only the 54th worst in the majors those situations.

The best “clutch” hitters, according to the STATS definition that Rosenthal uses, are:

1. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
2. Reed Johnson, Blue Jays
3. Carlos Lee, Brewers
4. Wes Helms, Marlins
5. Julio Lugo, Devil Rays

I’ve heard this argument about A-Rod before. It’s a common theme from the A-Rod haters. And not just in the blogosphere – some time ago, David Justice received some praise in the print media for his TV presentation on why A-Rod isn’t “clutch.”

But let’s take that argument a little farther, shall we? If we accept the STATS stats, then A-Rod is a horrible “clutch” player. Likewise, the players listed above are fantastic in the “clutch.”

Are you really willing to believe that Reed Johnson, Wes Helms, Julio Lugo, and Carlos Lee (even with the terrific year he’s having) are better than Rodriguez? If so, please send me an e-mail – I’m pretty sure we can find room for you in our fantasy league. We’ll even save Wes Helms for you…