Congratulations on Winning the Award...I Guess

USA Today awarded Twins pitcher Matt Garza its prestigious Minor League Player of the Year Award. You can tell it's prestigious by the list of other guys who won the award:

1988: Right-hander Mike Harkey
1989: Infielder Todd Zeile
1990: First baseman Tino Martinez
1991: Right-hander Mark Wohlers
1992: First baseman Carlos Delgado
1993: Outfielder Cliff Floyd
1994: Outfielder Billy Ashley
1995: Outfielder Andruw Jones
1996: Outfielder Andruw Jones
1997: Outfielder Ben Grieve
1998: Outfielder Gabe Kapler
1999: Left-hander Rick Ankiel
2000: Outfielder Josh Hamilton
2001: Right-hander Josh Beckett
2002: Shortstop Jose Reyes
2003: First baseman Prince Fielder
2004: Left-hander Jeff Francis
2005: Left-hander Francisco Liriano

Forgive me for being snarky, but the names on this list are a reason why I take those "top prospect" lists with a grain of salt the size of a blue whale. Look at these guys -- the only real superstars there are Delgado and Jones. Fielder and Liriano have a chance to get to that level, but it's too soon to tell right now. The rest never really lived up to their minor league hype (although Floyd, Zeile, Wohlers, and Martinez enjoyed good careers).

Obviously, hindsight is 20-20. But it just goes to show how difficult it is (even for the expert) to project a player's career arc. Just something to keep in mind the next time your team's GM doesn't draft your pet amateur player, or throws in that tantalizing Class A pitcher in a short-sighted trade...