Prognosticators Repeat Ourselves, Too
Bob pointed out recently how history doesn't repeat itself; historians merely repeat each other. Researching this preview for the Atlanta Braves, I can't help but realize that everything written on the subject for the past several years has been a rehash of the same theme: There is no way that the Braves can keep their title streak going this year. Look at what they lost over the winter!
The best known loss over this past winter, of course, was the legendary pitching coach Leo Mazzone, who left for Baltimore. In addition, shortstop Rafael Furcal and catcher Johnny Estrada have also moved on. Those are some significant losses, but I'm giving up on ever selling the Braves short again. GM John Schuerholz and manager Bobby Cox have shown over and over again that they can always find someone to plug the holes, often someone even better than the guy they replaced.
Projected 2006 Lineup:
LF Ryan Langerhans
2B Marcus Giles
CF Andruw Jones
3B Chipper Jones
RF Jeff Francoeur
1B Adam LaRoche
SS Edgar Rentaria
C Brian McCann
That's still as good a lineup as any in the NL East. McCann had essentially replaced Estrada by the end of 2005; he projects as a better hitter with more power. Rentaria is not the equal of Furcal, but he's not exactly Neifi Perez, either.
The critical components this year are Francoeur and LaRoche. Francouer made a big splash in 2005, batting .300 and slugging .549 in 70 games as a 21-year-old. That is indeed very impressive; what's troubling is his 11/58 BB/K ratio. While I don't expect him to turn into a Bonds-like walk machine, he will have to show improvement in strike zone judgement or pitchers will figure him out this time around. LaRoche is a decent player, but a good team needs more than a .775 OPS from a first baseman. LaRoche is also without a platoon partner as of this writing; last year he hit just .188 against lefties.
Projected 2006 Rotation and Bullpen:
SP John Smoltz
SP Tim Hudson
SP John Thomson
SP Jorge Sosa
SP Horacio Ramirez/Kyle Davies
CL Chris Reitsma
RP John Foster
RP Blaine Boyer
RP Lance Cormier
RP Chuck James
Health will again be a big factor at the top of the rotation; Hudson and Thomson both missed time in 2005 and Smoltz has his own injury history, although he held up well under the stress of the rotation last year. Ramirez and Davies had good moments in 2005, but neither showed consistant domination, with BB/K ratios of 67/80 and 49/62 respectively. If those don't improve, look for James and possibly Anthony (PePe) Lerew to move up quickly into rotation slots.
When you shoot at a king, you must kill him. Many teams and forcasters have taken shots at the Braves for years now, but they still wear the NL East crown. Until someone finally does knock them from their perch, I'm going to keep picking them to win.
The best known loss over this past winter, of course, was the legendary pitching coach Leo Mazzone, who left for Baltimore. In addition, shortstop Rafael Furcal and catcher Johnny Estrada have also moved on. Those are some significant losses, but I'm giving up on ever selling the Braves short again. GM John Schuerholz and manager Bobby Cox have shown over and over again that they can always find someone to plug the holes, often someone even better than the guy they replaced.
Projected 2006 Lineup:
LF Ryan Langerhans
2B Marcus Giles
CF Andruw Jones
3B Chipper Jones
RF Jeff Francoeur
1B Adam LaRoche
SS Edgar Rentaria
C Brian McCann
That's still as good a lineup as any in the NL East. McCann had essentially replaced Estrada by the end of 2005; he projects as a better hitter with more power. Rentaria is not the equal of Furcal, but he's not exactly Neifi Perez, either.
The critical components this year are Francoeur and LaRoche. Francouer made a big splash in 2005, batting .300 and slugging .549 in 70 games as a 21-year-old. That is indeed very impressive; what's troubling is his 11/58 BB/K ratio. While I don't expect him to turn into a Bonds-like walk machine, he will have to show improvement in strike zone judgement or pitchers will figure him out this time around. LaRoche is a decent player, but a good team needs more than a .775 OPS from a first baseman. LaRoche is also without a platoon partner as of this writing; last year he hit just .188 against lefties.
Projected 2006 Rotation and Bullpen:
SP John Smoltz
SP Tim Hudson
SP John Thomson
SP Jorge Sosa
SP Horacio Ramirez/Kyle Davies
CL Chris Reitsma
RP John Foster
RP Blaine Boyer
RP Lance Cormier
RP Chuck James
Health will again be a big factor at the top of the rotation; Hudson and Thomson both missed time in 2005 and Smoltz has his own injury history, although he held up well under the stress of the rotation last year. Ramirez and Davies had good moments in 2005, but neither showed consistant domination, with BB/K ratios of 67/80 and 49/62 respectively. If those don't improve, look for James and possibly Anthony (PePe) Lerew to move up quickly into rotation slots.
When you shoot at a king, you must kill him. Many teams and forcasters have taken shots at the Braves for years now, but they still wear the NL East crown. Until someone finally does knock them from their perch, I'm going to keep picking them to win.
posted by Jim at
11:16 AM
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