Boned
The Florida Marlins are more than likely doomed. We've been covering this topic ever since the old days at our previous web site and we can't see any light at the end of the tunnel that doesn't involve the Super Chief. For the second time since 1997, Marlins ownership conducted a fire sale over the winter, shearing the club of all but one regular from the 2005 club, as well as two of the top three starters and the closer.
The fire sale is not really the bad news for the franchise. Players like Jeff Conine, Mike Lowell, Paul LoDuca, and Todd Jones aren't anything all that special to begin with. Even Carlos Delgado, certainly one of the better hitters in the NL, isn't getting any younger at 34 and is of more value as a trade chit than as a regular on a team looking to build for the future.
The loss of veterans means opportunity for youngsters. The Marlins have a few good ones. They didn't just give away their players; they did a good job of getting back some real prospects, all the more remarkable considering that anyone dealing with the Fish knew that GM Larry Beinfest was under orders to make a deal, any deal.
Projected 2006 Lineup:
LF Chris Aguila
SS Hanley Ramirez
RF Jeremy Hermida
3B Miguel Cabrera
1B Mike Jacobs
C Josh Willingham
CF Eric Reed
2B Pokey Reese (sure, why not?)
Aguila is not the ideal leadoff man; he's shown decent walk rates in the minors but for two years has swung at every pitch he's seen in the Show. There isn't a better candidate, though. Reed hit .310 at Albuquerque but walked three times in 39 games there. Ramirez might lead off, but despite being highly regarded as a prospect I'm very skeptical of him. Reese is a joke at the plate.
The middle of the lineup is very good. Hermida will quickly join Cabrera as one of the best players in the NL. Jacobs can hit, and Willingham can really hit; the only question is whether he can catch. On this team, I say let him try, what is there to lose?
Projected 2006 Starting Rotation and Bullpen:
SP Dontrell Willis
SP Brian Moehler
SP Sergio Mitre
SP Jason Vargas
SP Scott Olson
CL Joe Borowski
RP Nate Bump
RP Travis Bowyer
RP Chris Resop
RP Kerry Ligtenberg or some other warm body
Anibel Sanchez and Yusmeiro Petit could make bids to join the rotation at some point. There is talent here, too, but young pitchers are risky investments. If I were running this team, I'd concentrate on just keeping them healthy and on the development track.
Most baseball pundits are down on the Marlins because of the exodus of the veterans. I think differently. If your bullpen has lost Todd Jones, Guillermo Mota, Jim Mecir, and Antonio Alfonseca, so what? The same for having to replace guys from your lineup like Lowell, Alex Gonzalez, and Juan Encarnacion. They aren't really quality players, so why cry that they've gone?
What makes me pessimistic about this franchise is that I believe that all the good player development work being done here is for naught. When the Basic Agreement expires, contraction is going to come up again, and this time I don't think that the Marlins will survive. MLB has run out of optional cities to move teams into, and the state of Florida is quite clear that they aren't going to be building a free home for the team any time soon. Of course, Montreal is available; I'm sure that Jeffrey Loira would be welcomed back there with open arms.
The fire sale is not really the bad news for the franchise. Players like Jeff Conine, Mike Lowell, Paul LoDuca, and Todd Jones aren't anything all that special to begin with. Even Carlos Delgado, certainly one of the better hitters in the NL, isn't getting any younger at 34 and is of more value as a trade chit than as a regular on a team looking to build for the future.
The loss of veterans means opportunity for youngsters. The Marlins have a few good ones. They didn't just give away their players; they did a good job of getting back some real prospects, all the more remarkable considering that anyone dealing with the Fish knew that GM Larry Beinfest was under orders to make a deal, any deal.
Projected 2006 Lineup:
LF Chris Aguila
SS Hanley Ramirez
RF Jeremy Hermida
3B Miguel Cabrera
1B Mike Jacobs
C Josh Willingham
CF Eric Reed
2B Pokey Reese (sure, why not?)
Aguila is not the ideal leadoff man; he's shown decent walk rates in the minors but for two years has swung at every pitch he's seen in the Show. There isn't a better candidate, though. Reed hit .310 at Albuquerque but walked three times in 39 games there. Ramirez might lead off, but despite being highly regarded as a prospect I'm very skeptical of him. Reese is a joke at the plate.
The middle of the lineup is very good. Hermida will quickly join Cabrera as one of the best players in the NL. Jacobs can hit, and Willingham can really hit; the only question is whether he can catch. On this team, I say let him try, what is there to lose?
Projected 2006 Starting Rotation and Bullpen:
SP Dontrell Willis
SP Brian Moehler
SP Sergio Mitre
SP Jason Vargas
SP Scott Olson
CL Joe Borowski
RP Nate Bump
RP Travis Bowyer
RP Chris Resop
RP Kerry Ligtenberg or some other warm body
Anibel Sanchez and Yusmeiro Petit could make bids to join the rotation at some point. There is talent here, too, but young pitchers are risky investments. If I were running this team, I'd concentrate on just keeping them healthy and on the development track.
Most baseball pundits are down on the Marlins because of the exodus of the veterans. I think differently. If your bullpen has lost Todd Jones, Guillermo Mota, Jim Mecir, and Antonio Alfonseca, so what? The same for having to replace guys from your lineup like Lowell, Alex Gonzalez, and Juan Encarnacion. They aren't really quality players, so why cry that they've gone?
What makes me pessimistic about this franchise is that I believe that all the good player development work being done here is for naught. When the Basic Agreement expires, contraction is going to come up again, and this time I don't think that the Marlins will survive. MLB has run out of optional cities to move teams into, and the state of Florida is quite clear that they aren't going to be building a free home for the team any time soon. Of course, Montreal is available; I'm sure that Jeffrey Loira would be welcomed back there with open arms.
posted by Jim at
4:11 PM
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