Phrustration, Inc.

It was another disappointing season in 2005 for the Philadelphia Phillies. Picked by many to unseat the Atlanta Braves at the top of the NL East, the Phillies came close, but fell two games short. In the end, even the Wild Card slipped from their hands, with the Houston Astros surging past in the season's final days.

Injuries certainly played a part, at least according to conventional wisdom. Jim Thome, productive in his first two seasons with the club after signing a huge free agent deal in the winter of 2002-2003, had a disasterous season, although probably not so bad as Brownie's. Brought down by injuries, Thome batted just .207 with seven homers. Randy Wolf, the Phils best starter, blew out his elbow after starting just 13 games and missed the rest of the season.

Of course, injuries often lead to opportunity. Ryan Howard, previously trapped at AAA by Thome, took over the first base job and smashed 22 homers in just over half a season. Robinson Tejeda, inserted into the rotation to replace Wolf, frustrated Phillies management with control struggles, yet allowed only 67 hits in 85 2/3 innings, striking out 72 and posting a 3.57 ERA. It would be an oversimplification to pin the blame on losing Thome and Wolf.

Projected 2006 Lineup:

SS Jimmy Rollins
CF Aaron Rowand
RF Bobby Abreu
1B Ryan Howard
LF Pat Burrell
2B Chase Utley
C Mike Leiberthal
3B David Bell

The outfield of Burrell, Rowand, and Abreu is one of the best in the game. The Phils also have 3/4 of a very productive infield, with Howard, Utley, and Rollins. Third base, however, is an area badly needing an upgrade, as David Bell is long past the point of any usefulness on the field. Leiberthal is 34 and battling injuries constantly; I forsee much more Sal Fasano in the Phillies future than even a Fasano fan like me thinks is advisable. Outfielder Shane Victorio is the only bench player presenting a possible upside, and there is no other help coming from the farm system, one of the worst in the game.

Projected 2006 Starting Rotation and Bullpen:

SP Jon Leiber
SP Brett Myers
SP Cory Lidle
SP Ryan Franklin
SP Ryan Madsen/Robinson Tejeda

CL Tom Gordon
RP Arthur Rhodes
RP Aaron Fultz
RP Geoff Geary
RP Madsen or Tejeda

A decent group, but certainly not overwhelming. Myers emerged as the Phillies best starter in 2005, striking out 208 in 213 innings. Leiber is a good #2, and the rest are, at least, servicable. My real concern is Gordon. He's 38, his strikeout rate fell off dramatically in 2005, and he looked very, very tired by October.

I still believe that what is holding this franchise back is this line on the team's organizational chart:

Dallas Green.....Senior Advisor to the General Manager.

Like Tommy LaSorda in LA, Green represents the good old days to Phillies owner David Montgomery and chairman Bill Giles, himself a part of the old cabal. I'm not belittling Green or LaSorda's knowledge of the game; they know more nuts and bolts about the game on the field than I could ever hope to. What brings the team down is that both are inflexible, clinging to the old ways, good and bad, against the encroachment of new ideas. They are the type to prefer Bell to Scott Rolen, based on some vague idea of "leadership" and "guts." David Bell might have more guts than 100 plates of haggis, but a .671 OPS at third base is dragging the team down, no matter how much of a leader he is.

The ability of new General Manager Pat Gillick to cut through this kind of crap will be critical to the chances of the 2006 club. Gillick has his detractors, but built championship quality teams in three places, Toronto, Baltimore, and Seattle. He's earned the nickname "Stand Pat" for his refusal to make in-season deals that might have helped push the Mariners further in the postseason, but he has at least started his Phillies tenure with a very fine deal, acquiring a standout defensive centerfielder with some pop in his bat (Rowand) and two very strong pitching prospects from the White Sox for Thome. I'm less enamored of his solutions to the bullpen, tossing out a solid outfield reserve in Jason Michaels to pick up Rhodes, and tossing money at the very risky Gordon. Recognizing and fixing the problem at third needs to be a huge priority, as well as finding spare parts to stock the bench.

Although the 2005 season is considered a huge disappointment, the Phillies did win 88 games. Picking up just two or three more this yearcould very likely put them into the postseason. However, losing two or three will once again leave Phillie Phan and the city's media howling in outrage and calling for heads to roll. Sadly for them, my best guess at this time is on the latter.