Pittsburgh Pirates 2008 Preview: My GM, He Wrote Me A Letter

2007...the year that sucked/was groovy (pick one)

There's no way to sugarcoat this. The Pirates of 2007 were a crappy ballclub, a continuation of an unbroken trend dating back to the day in 1992 that Pirates management decided that 27 year old Barry Bonds was going to be too rich for their blood and that it would be more prudent to give long term contract security to Andy Van Slyke instead. Since then the Pirates have never won more than 79 games in a season and have lost 90 or more six times. This might be hard for the younger whippersnappers amongst our readership to realize, but the Pirates used to be one of the best franchises in the National League, winning two World Series titles during my lifetime and being a contending team most of the time between 1960 and 1992. In 2007 things may have finally begun to turn around. This wasn't apparent on the field, where the Pirates continued to be mostly dismal. But new management took over, replacing former chief owner Kevin McClatchey, GM Dave Littlefield, and manager Jim Tracy with new chairman Robert Nutting, president Frank Coonelly, GM Neal Huntington, and manager John Russell, who takes over this spring. If you have some concerns that this group isn't serious about returning this organization to sanity, read this. That's a remarkable letter; it takes a lot of sack for a GM to publicly admit to the fan base that yes, your team was run by a pack of idiots for 15 years and has become a laughingstock that made every mistake imaginable. If Huntington has the organization management skills to match his honesty, the Pirates will be back to being one of the game's premier franchises by the 2010's.

They can put it on the board, yes! no! maybe!

The 2007 Pirates weren't too adept at scoring runs. Their home park slightly favored pitchers, but the Pirates were actually worse in scoring on the road. Knee injuries that greatly diminished Jason Bay's season and a horrible start by new first baseman Adam LaRoche dragged the offense down, as did the season long lack of a true leadoff hitter. Freddy Sanchez, Jack Wilson, and Xavier Nady were solid if unspectacular contributors, and Nyjer Morgan and Steven Pearce came up in September and showed some promise.

CF Nyjer Morgan
SS Jack Wilson
2B Freddy Sanchez
1B Adam LaRoche
LF Jason Bay
RF Xavier Nady
3B Jose Bautista
C Ronny Paulino

Well, this is a bit better, although still not the lineup of a .500 ballclub. Bay should be healthier and better this year, and LaRoche should build on his fine 2007 second half. The problem for the Pirates moving forward is that most of their best hitters (Bay, Sanchez, LaRoche, even the rookie Morgan) were late bloomers and are already pushing 30. By the time management is able to put a contender on the field all of them will be long gone. This is a concept that Pirates fan (and they do still exist) is going to have to understand, even if it's painful. Bay, Wilson, LaRoche, Sanchez, and Nady all have more value to the franchise for what prospects they could bring in than in their performance on the field.

Pitchers, or belly itchers?

The Pirates finished 14th in the NL in runs allowed. In road games they allowed 5.63 runs per game, worst in the league. However, the core of the staff is young and very promising and the on field turnaround of the franchise began here.

SP Ian Snell
SP Tom Gorzelanny
SP Paul Maholm
SP Zach Duke
SP Matt Morris

Here is the current strength of the franchise. Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny are a fine young tandem at the top of the order. Zach Duke has been messed up over the past couple of years but is still young enough and healthy enough to regain the form that made him so impressive in 2005. Maholm isn't in the class of the others but can at least be league average, which has value. Capps is very effective as a closer and is only 24. Even Morris should get the credit for one thing: it was the insane trade for him and his entire contract which finally brought upper management to the end of their patience with Littlefield. A month after the trade the Pirates told Littlefield goodbye and good luck. They may not have said good luck.

Witnesses for the defense

The 2007 Pirates made few errors. Well, fielding errors, anyway, they made plenty of mistakes. However, only the Marlins were worse at making outs out of batted balls. With most of the lineup returning intact it's difficult to see any change in this area in 2008.

Farm aid

Among the many deficiencies of the Littlefield administration was its handling of the draft and the farm system. Let's recap their first round picks since 2000:

2000: 19th pick overall, Sean Burnett. Burnett made an impressive debut but has had arm problems due in part to poor handling and is just hanging on the 40 man roster. Taken after Burnett in round one: Boof Bonser, Adam Wainwright, Aaron Heilman, Dustin McGowan, Kelly Johnson.

2001: 8th pick overall, John Van Benschoten. One of the top college sluggers in his class, the Pirates decided his future was on the mound. Several surgeries later he has a 1-10 record with an 8.78 ERA for his major league career. Taken after him: Casey Kotchman, Aaron Heilman, Bobby Crosby, Jeremy Bonderman, Noah Lowry, and some guy named David Wright.

2002: #1 overall, Brian Bullington. Littlefield overrode the judgement of his scouting director who wanted to pick B.J. Upton and chose this Ball State righthander. Bullington developed slowly, had shoulder surgery which cost him all of 2006, and will never be more than a back of the rotation starter, if that. Taken after him: Upton, Adam Loewen, Zach Grienke, Prince Fielder, Jeff Francis, Jeremy Hermida, Kahlil Greene, Scott Kazmir, Nick Swisher, Cole Hamels, James Loney, Jeremy Guthrie, Jeff Francouer, Joe Blanton, Matt Cain, Mark Teahen. This is one of the greatest classes in draft history; the Pirates got to go first and decided to play the part of Charlie Brown.

2003: #8 overall, Paul Maholm. At least they got something this time, even if Maholm isn't anything special. Taken after him: Lastings Milledge, Aaron Hill, Conor Jackson, Chad Cordero, Chad Billingsley, Deric Barton, Carlos Quentin, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Adam Jones.

2004: #11 overall, Neil Walker. Walker is still a fair prospect, although moving from catcher to third base reduces his possible future value. Still, he'll probably replace Bautista by late this year or early next year. Taken after him: Jered Weaver, Billy Butler, Steven Drew, Josh Fields, Phillip Hughes, Huston Street.

2005: #11 overall, Andrew McCutchen. Finally, a prize! McCutchen is far and away the best prospect in the system; he held his own after being overpromoted to double A and then triple A at age 20 in 2007. He's got Andruw Jones like abilities. Taken after him: Jay Bruce, Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Garza, Travis Buck, Clay Buchholz. McCutchen is as good as any in the group.

2006: #4 overall, Brad Lincoln, RH pitcher. A good pick but the Pirates suffered bad luck here as Lincoln blew out his elbow. We'll see what his recovery is like. Taken after him: Andrew Miller, Tim Lincecum, Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain, Clayton Kershaw, Travis Snyder.

2007: #4 overall, Daniel Moskos. A lefty reliever with a good fastball, Moskos could turn into a Billy Wagner type. Or not. Moskos was thought to have been chosen in this spot because of what the Pirates could pay him, rather then on his talent. Chosen with the next three picks after him: Matt Wieters, Ross Detwiler, Matt Laporta, all of whom have a higher ceiling.

Due to all of this, the Pirates are just now starting the system wide rebuilding that should have begun about ten years ago. McCutchen projects with real star potential; the best homegrown player the Pirates have come up with since Aramis Ramirez ten years ago. Walker and Pearce should at least turn into above average players if not actual stars. So can Moskos and outfielder Jamie Romak, who should be ready by 2009. Lincoln is now a project rather than an immediate help. The rest of the system is pretty empty.

Watch out for that tree!

A team of this type shouldn't have a long entry in this category. To the credit of the Pirates, they don't. The trade for Morris is one of the worst ever; when I first heard about it I seriously thought that the person who told me was kidding me. Morris is 33 and has pretty much lost his fastball. I'm pretty confident that Neal Huntington already knows this and is trying to take appropriate action.

I can make a hat, or a broach...

The bad news is that this team isn't going to win anything this year, and won't win anything next year, either. The good news is that the Pirates finally seem to have a management team that recognizes and understands all of the failure and incompetence of the previous 15 years and is determined to do something about it. Honestly, after reading Huntington's open letter, as well as this one and this one, I'm rooting for this franchise. For 2008, the Pirates will likely be mediocre, instead of really, really bad. We shall see what the future brings.

Cincinnati Reds 2008 Preview: Building a New Machine?

2007...the year that sucked/was groovy (pick one)

While the 2007 season was not exactly groovy for the Cincinnati Reds and their fans (the Reds finished 72-90, 13 games out), it was at least an interesting one. There was the ongoing story of Josh Hamilton's recovery and comeback, the insane accusation by a loudmouthed local radio host that their best player played like he was drunk on the field, Ken Griffey Jr. playing his most complete schedule since 2000, one of the scariest on-field collisions in recent memory, the midseason replacement of the manager, and more. Amidst all of the drama there were some real steps forward taken as some outstanding young talent debuted or moved very close to the major league level.

They can put it on the board, yes! no! maybe!

They play their home games in a bandbox, so the Reds looked a bit better at the plate in 2007 than they actually were. They finished fourth in runs scored at home but only seventh in road games and seventh overall. Adam Dunn takes a lot of crap for what he's not (a graceful outfielder who hits .300) while what he does do (hit 40 homers and draws 100 walks) gets ignored. Griffey and second baseman Brandon Phillips each reached the 30 homer mark. Third baseman Edwin Encarnacion returned from a demotion to triple A to hit .337/.383/.553 in August and September, raising hopes that he's finally turned a corner in his career.

2B Brandon Phillips
1B Joey Votto
RF Ken Griffey Jr.
3B Edwin Encarnacion
LF Adam Dunn
CF Jay Bruce
SS Alex Gonzalez
C David Ross/Javier Valentine

An impressive group. Phillips isn't really a leadoff hitter but neither is anyone else in the lineup, so he goes there by default. He did score 107 runs in 2007 with his combination of speed and power. Votto is an outstanding prospect who hit .321/.360/.548 in September. Bruce is the leading Rookie of the Year candidate in the NL; both Baseball Prospectus and prospect maven John Sickles rate him as the number one prospect in baseball. Given good health this could be an 850+ run team.

Pitchers, or belly itchers?

Despite the continued development of Aaron Harang into one of the NL's best starters, the pitching staff was pretty bad in 2007, allowing the second most runs in the league. Playing in the Great American Ball Park didn't help, but the Reds also allowed 5.11 runs per game on the road.

SP Aaron Harang
SP Bronson Arroyo
SP Matt Beslisle
SP Josh Fogg
SP Jeremy Affelt

CL Francisco Cordero
RP David Weathers
RP Bill Bray

Harang is one of the league's elite starters. Arroyo is a dependable innings eater and a decent number two. Forget the other three listed starters; they're placeholders who may not even make it out of spring training. Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, and Edinson Volquez will have those spots by midseason at the latest. All three are outstanding prospects and the odds are that at least one of the three will turn out to be very, very good. Adding Cordero bumps Stormy Weathers back to setup man, improving the bullpen all around. Look for some help in the pen from Jon Coutlangus; he's no closer prospect or anything, I just wanted to type the word "Coutlangus."

Witnesses for the defense

On the one hand, the 2007 Reds made few errors. On the other, they were among the worst in the NL at turning balls in play into outs. It's unclear if any improvement can be expected in 2008. Bruce is capable of handling center but isn't expected to transform into Andruw Jones. Dunn really is a bad left fielder. A full season from Gonzalez at short would help. Encarnacion has made a few strides at third at might at least battle the position to a draw.

Farm aid

A bumper crop. Votto and Bruce should be in the Opening Day lineup. At least one of the group of Bailey, Cueto, and Volquez will probably break camp in the rotation with the rest following promptly. None of these guys are middle of the road prospects; each has the ability to be real stars at the major league level. That's all there is at the moment, the rest of the best prospects are still at the lower levels.

Watch out for that tree!

Call this spot the annual Griffey Jr. watch. As much as we love him, we have to realize that he's 38, hasn't played a full season without injuries since Monica Lewinsky was a tawdry news item, and can't and shouldn't play center field any more. I'd write that Mike Stanton might break down any moment at age 41 except that he already has. Scott Hatteberg is 38; Votto's arrival makes Hatteberg's new position "pinch hitter."

I can make a hat, or a broach...

The Reds are one of the most interesting teams I've written about this spring. They look at least solid at every position, and five members of the lineup have the ability to be all stars. They have a strong number one starter and a good closer. If the young pitchers break through quickly this is the team in the NL most likely to take a huge leap forward. The Brewers and Cubs are good clubs but neither one is anything like the 1998 Yankees. The Reds could spend the year in development, but I can also see them jumping over the rest of the division to capture a surprise title.

Houston Astros 2008 Preview: Houston, We Have a Whole Pot Full of Problems

2007...the year that sucked/was groovy (pick one)

After a run of ten winning seasons in eleven years which included a World Series appearance, the Houston Astros turned the 2007 season into a preview of a spy satellite gone bad. Their trajectory started well, playing .500 ball at 21-21 as late as May 19. Orbit immediately decayed from that point as they lost ten straight and fell permanently out of the pennant race. They were double digits to the rear by June 20 and had only one winning month, August, when they played a rousing 15-14. Rather than begin to rebuild, management allowed zombie Craig Biggio to remain in the lineup for 141 sub replacement level games in order to achieve a personal milestone before retiring, and obtained 32 year old former star Miguel Tejada and 30 year old mediocrity Ty Wiggington to replace the left side of the infield and 32 year old Kaz Matsui to replace Biggio.

They can put it on the board, yes! no! maybe!

The Juice Box is known as a hitters park, but was actually a big help to pitchers in 2007, reducing offense by about 5%. Astros hitters didn't really notice; they were bad at home and on the road. The Astros finished 13th in the league in runs scored despite having four regulars who each slugged better than .500. How is that possible, you might well ask? Start by looking in the direction of Biggio, who wa permitted to bat leadoff much of the year despite a .285 on base percentage, in order to maximize his chances of reaching 3000 career hits. Remember that the next time that team management tells you that it's wrong for players to be more concerned about personal numbers than about the success of the team. Shortstop Adam Everett hit .232/.281/.318 and catcher Brad Ausmus, whose continued employment by a major league team defies any logical explanation, batted his usual .235/.318/.324.

CF Michael Bourn
2B Kaz Matsui
SS Miguel Tejada
1B Lance Berkman
LF Carlos Lee
RF Hunter Pence
3B Ty Wiggington
C J. R. Towles

Bourn, obtained from the Phillies, has little no power but can get on base and run like the wind. Matsui was signed by a management team completely oblivious to the fact that his "comeback" season of 2007 was entirely driven by Coors Field; he batted .330/.381/482 at home and .249/.304/.333 on the road. Oh, and he's got a three year contract. Let us know how that works out for you, Astros. Pence was one of the top rookies in a very strong 2007 NL class. Wiggington looks much better as a utility guy than he does in a starting lineup; telling me that you have Geoff Blum to pick up platoon at-bats with Wiggington doesn't exactly fill me with confidence. Towles is a very fine young catcher with offensive and defensive skills; best of all, he's not Brad Ausmus.

Pitchers, or belly itchers?

Even a helpful boost from their home park couldn't disguise the dismal performance of the Astros 2007 staff. Mediocre at home (sixth in runs allowed), they were awful on the road, allowing more runs than anyone except the Pirates. Being mentioned in the same breath with the Pirates is not a good thing. The Astros had (and have) one of the five best starters in the NL in Roy Oswalt. Wandy Rodriguez, a decent number three or four on a good team, was forced up into the number two spot here, results varied. Woody Williams was brought in at age 40 to be the number two guy; he allowed 35 homers and 216 total hits in 188 innings. Luckily, management signed him to a two year contract, so he'll be back for more this year. The Astros had high hopes for Jason Jennings, but he was a disaster health wise and performance wise, going 2-9 with a 6.45 ERA and was allowed to walk away over the winter. Brad Lidge and Chad Qualls were good relievers; neither is back in 2008.

SP Roy Oswalt
SP Wandy Rodriguez
SP Brandon Backe
SP Woody Williams (ouch)
SP Shawn Chacon (ouch)

CL Jose Valverde
RP Doug Brocail
RP Geoff Geary

This will end in flames. Not only are Oswalt, Rodriguez, and Valverde the only three guys capable of pitching for a good team, there isn't any depth on the major league roster and nothing in the high minors to replace the likes of Williams and Chacon and Brocail when they melt down. If the Juice Box returns to it's previous ways as a hitters park this team could allow 850 runs.

Witnesses for the defense

The Astros were eleventh in defensive efficiency and allowed the ninth most errors of any NL team. Hey, come on, they were playing a 2000 year old man at second base. Matsui will at least provide some value for his defense at second. Bourn can cover a lot of ground in center; he moves Pence to right, which is another improvement. Tejada will be a step down defensively from Adam Everett.

Farm aid

Not much. Towles is a terrific prospect. Felipe Paulino is a righthander who needs more work in triple A before he's ready for a rotation spot. That's it. Nothing else to see here folks, move along.

Watch out for that tree!

With the retirement of Biggio and the replacement of Ausmus, the Astros don't have anyone really, really washed up in the lineup other than Williams. Tejada has begun to decline both offensively and defensively but most likely has another year or two of being a good player left. Matsui is an excellent candidate to be one of the worst contracts given out this winter. Lee, like Tejada, can probably remain a good player for another year or two, but a 235 pound outfielder without a lot of secondary skills isn't a candidate to play well into his mid thirties.

I can make a hat, or a broach...

The Astros have a lot of good players. Berkman and Oswalt are two of my favorites and remain among the best at their positions. Pense was one of the best newcomers of 2007; Towles will be one of the best of 2008. Rodriguez could take another step forward and become a true number two. Tejada, Lee, Valverde, and Bourn should be good players who can contribute. But the other half of the team is dreadful, and the poor farm system offers no opportunities for replacement either through bring up younger, better players or through trades. With good years from their better players the Astros could hang around the .500 mark this year, but within two years this could be the worst team in the NL.

St. Louis Cardinals 2008 Preview: Slip Sliding Away

2007...the year that sucked/was groovy (pick one)

In 2006 the St. Louis Cardinals were a bit of a mediocre team, finishing with an 83-78 record but played in a weak division, got hot at the right time, and won themselves a World Series championship. In 2007 the Cardinals were a bit of a mediocre team and got down years from their best players and thus finished 78-84 behind two much better ballclubs. Over the winter team management traded one injury plagued third baseman for another, one mediocre shortstop for another, and signed aboard another veteran reclamation project for the pitching staff.

They can put it on the board, yes! no! maybe!

Newest Busch Stadium played pretty much as a neutral park in 2007 and the Cardinals offense reflected that. They scored about the same number of runs at home as on the road, but with injuries to Scott Rolen, Jim Edmunds, and lesser players, the total wasn't enough, leaving them eleventh in the NL in scoring.

RF Skip Schumacher
CF Rick Ankiel
1B Albert Pujols
3B Troy Glaus
LF Chris Duncan
C Yadier Molina
2B Adam Kennedy
SS Cesar Izturis

Pujols, of course, is the best hitter in the NL, by far, and only has to argue with this guy for bragging rights in all of the major leagues. Glaus is still a dangerous hitter for the 120 or so games he might be able to play in any given year. Duncan is a godawful left fielder but has enough power and patience to be a productive left fielder. Ankiel has turned into a dangerous power bat; batting him second exposes his problems with plate discipline. Schumacher hasn't proven he can be an every day player, and is a placeholder for Colby Rasmus. The idea of spring training invitee Juan Gonzalez as being of any possible value is laughable. The Cardinals are continuing the NL trend of finding an inappropriate spot in the batting order for a member of The Catching Molinas. With the third member of the troupe backing up Jorge Posada, at least the Yankees won't contribute to this fad.

Pitchers, or belly itchers?

The Cardinals lost their number one starter from 2006 to injury and the number two guy to free agency. As those were the only two starters with ERAs under 5.00, you might have expected that the Cards would allow a lot more runs in 2007, and you'd have been right. The Cardinals allowed 829 runs as opposed to 762 in their championship season. It would have been worse but for Adam Wainwright stepping up as a staff leader and unexpectedly good performances from desperation starters Joel Piniero and Todd Wellemeyer.

SP Adam Wainwright
SP Braden Looper
SP Joel Piniero
SP Matt Clement
SP Anthony Reyes

CL Jason Isringhausen
RP Ryan Franklin
RP Tyler Johnson

Chris Carpenter won't be available until late in the season if at all. Wainwright should continue to develop into a fine starter. Reyes was once considered Wainwright's equal as a prospect but hasn't developed any consistency and will be fighting to keep a starting job unless he begins to. Clement hasn't pitched since June 4, 2006 and won't be ready for the rotation until at least May. Isringhausen remains an effective closer but won't get any healthier at age 35; the Cardinals should test his trade value if they fall out of the race. Which they will.

Witnesses for the defense

The 2007 Cardinals didn't play defense like a championship team. Only the Marlins made more errors, and the Cardinals were well back in the pack in defensive efficiency. When your first baseman and an injured third baseman are your best defensive players, you have problems. Having a shortstop who simply can't throw all the way to first without a running start didn't help. Izturis can't hit a lick but he should at least be a defensive improvement over Eckstein at short, no matter how scrappy Eckstein is.

Farm aid

Three excellent prospects should show at Busch Stadium at some point this year, although none should be expected before midseason at the earliest. Centerfielder Colby Rasmus looks like everything you want in a top prospect...he's fast, has a strong arm, has a good eye at the plate, and can hit for power. He'll be in the Cards outfield by July. Catcher Bryan Anderson will probably wait until September for a call up, and his path to the majors is blocked by a silly contract handed out to the incumbent catcher. Hard throwing righthander Chris Perez will likely start at triple A and reach the majors by July or August when Ryan Franklin and Russ Springer wear out their welcomes. The rest of the organization is weak pretty much all the way down the system.

Watch out for that tree!

Troy Glaus is only 31, but has had three years in the past five in which he was able to play fewer than 115 games. Isringhausen has a long history of ailments; as mentioned before, the Cards should be trying to get whatever they can back for him before he goes down for good. Adam Kennedy, 32, completely collapsed in 2007, slugging .290 before going down with a knee injury. His career arc is about to come into solid contact with the ground.

I can make a hat, or a broach...

I hate to count out any team that has Albert Pujols playing for it, but this Cardinals team doesn't look too good. I can't see them either scoring enough runs or preventing enough to be a real contender. Hoping to build the middle of your rotation with Looper, Piniero, and Clement is asking for a meltdown. At least three spots in the batting order will contribute almost nothing. We mock Tony LaRussa often, but his record as a manager is a pretty good one. This team won't go down as one he'll want to remember fondly.

Milwaukee Brewers 2008 Preview: Ready For Prime Time Players

2007...the year that sucked/was groovy (pick one)

Brewer fan, relax a bit. I know that the end result was kind of disappointing, but come on. Your team hadn't even been over .500 since 1992. Robin Yount, Paul Molitor, and Jim Gantner were all on that team. Your guys spent 121 days in first place and didn't lose the lead for good until September 18. They never quit, going 16-12 in the final month, which is not exactly Rockies hot but hardly a Mets fold either, and they gave you the thrills of Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun at the plate and the chills of Braun in the field and Chris Capuano on the mound. And you've got the sausage races. Sounds like a pretty groovy summer to me. For 2008, the Brewers added a better defensive outfielder to the mix, signed a good but risky closer, and replaced one bad catcher with another.

They can put it on the board, yes! no! maybe!

The 2007 Brewers scored 801 runs, fifth in the NL. They got a little help from Miller Park, which slightly favored offense. They got even more help from Fielder and Braun, who each slugged better than .600. Ricky Weeks started slowly, had some minor injuries, fell into a terrible slump, got demoted, and then came back hotter than Chief Wiggum's Insanity Pepper Chili, with a .442 OBP and a .553 slugging average after August 1, including nine homers in September. Corey Hart slugged .539 and threw in 23 stolen bases just for kicks.

2B Ricky Weeks
3B Bill Hall
RF Corey Hart
1B Price Fielder
LF Ryan Braun
SS J. J. Hardy
CF Mike Cameron
C Jason Kendall or whoever replaces him by August

Best lineup in the league, with only the number eight hitter keeping it from being truly outstanding. Weeks, despite everything that happened last year, scored 87 runs in 118 games. Hall will hit better now that he's no longer doing OJT in center field. Everyone in the lineup is a 20 homer hitter or more other than Kendall, whose signing was completely inexplicable.

Pitchers, or belly itchers?

The Brewers allowed 776 runs, about a league average number. Injuries once again curtailed staff ace Ben Sheets, the guy the Brewers need in order to compete with the big boys. Chris Capuano started 5-0 and after that was both bad and snakebitten; the Brewers were 0-22 in games in which Capuano appeared after May 7. David Bush had only a slightly better year than his presidential namesake, going 12-10 but posting a 5.12 ERA. Francisco Cordero saved 44 games, then left as a free agent. The problems in the rotation did lead to opportunity, which Yovani Gallardo, Carlos Villanueva, and Manny Parra took advantage of to position themselves for rotation spots in 2008.

SP Ben Sheets (on the odd days he can pitch)
SP Jeff Suppan
SP Yovani Gallardo
SP Carlos Villanueva
SP David Bush/Chris Capuano/Manny Parra

CL Eric Gagne
RP Derrick Turnbow
RP David Riske

When your number one starter is fragile, it's great to have depth, and the Brewers have that. If Gallardo pitched for Boston or either New York team, he'd be getting the same write ups as Joba Chamberlain or Clay Buchholz. My personal opinion is that he's better than the former and just a bit behind the latter. Suppan, Bush, and Capuano had checkered seasons in 2007, partly because of their own struggles and partly because of the defense behind them, which we'll discuss in a minute.

Witnesses for the defense

The Brewers were pretty bad defensively in 2007. That might be an understatement. They tied for fourth in most errors committed and were near the bottom in defensive efficiency. Start with Ryan Braun. The Hebrew Hammer fielded .895 at third base last year. No matter how good a hitter you are, that ain't cuttin' it. Hall was out of place in center, running bad routes to the ball and generally playing the position like a guy who had never played their before. Which, except for seven games in 2006, he hadn't. Weeks has a ways to go before he becomes a competent second baseman. Management tried to kill two birds with one stone by signing Mike Cameron to play center. When Cameron comes off his 25 day suspension for violating MLB's PED policy, Hall will move to third and Braun to left.

Farm aid

The Brewers system just turned out an entire infield, two outfielders, one of the best starting pitching prospects in the game, and several other good pitchers. Let's try not to be too disappointed if no impact player comes out of it this year. Luis Pena could be a nice addition to the bullpen later this year. As if having one Prince Fielder isn't enough, the Brewers will aggressively promote another one, 2007 first round pick Matt LaPorta. LaPorta is a first baseman whom the Brewers are trying to teach to play left; if they can, they are going to have some very tough choices to make in 2009.

Watch out for that tree!

Eric Gagne, 32, pitched only 15 1/3 innings total between 2005 and 2006. Last year he pitched very well in 33 1/3 innings for Texas, but not so well in 18 2/3 innings for Boston. The Brewers need 65 good innings out of him in 2008, or they are looking at another year of Derrick Turnbow closing games. Cameron has always been a favorite of mine; it hurts that he's now 35. Ben Sheets shouldn't be on this list at age 29, but he hasn't pitched 200 innings in a season since his brilliant 2004 season. Jason Kendall hit the tree at age 28 way back in 2001; for some reason teams continue to employ him. Catching is hard to find, but it's not this hard.

I can make a hat, or a broach...

The Brewers, more than any other team in the NL, have the potential to be scary good. The top six hitters in the lineup are young and dangerous. With good health and some luck they could score 900 runs. The pitching staff has talent and depth and could be one of the best in the game. But...there is downside, too. One or more of the young hitters could step backwards. Another injury plagued season by Sheets could start a domino effect among the remaining starters. Gagne could implode; the options behind him aren't great. The defense could continue to give away runs. Ned Yost might prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that while he did a good job helping mold this team, he's not capable of taking them further. I'm putting my money on the upside. It would greatly amuse me to watch Bud Selig having to hand the World Series trophy over to the team that his family once ran into the ground.

Chicago Cubs 2008 Preview: The Adventures of Sweet Lou and the (S)crappy Shortstop

2007...the year that sucked/was groovy (pick one)

The 2007 Cubs started slowly. A six game losing streak at the end of May left them with a 22-31 record, 7 1/2 games out of first. With the Milwaukee Brewers starting the season practically perfect in every way, there was no shortage of prophets of doom in the always upbeat Chicago media, and no doubt that many gave up on the team already. But the Cubs turned around fast, going 34-20 in June and July to pull back into the race. The Cubs were no great shakes in August (12-16) but the Brewers were falling flatter than a case of bad, week-old opened beer, going 9-18 in the month to let the Cubs pass on the left hand side. Both teams played good ball in September; the Cubs were just a bit better and clinched the division title on the final Saturday. The Cubs were then immediately swept out of the postseason by the Diamondbacks, who didn't need a goat or Steve Bartman or the pointing finger of Babe Ruth but just played a better brand of baseball. Over the winter the Cubs swept out two unproductive outfielders in favor of their best prospect and a Japanese star and decided to cut bait on the frustrating career of Mark Prior.

They can put it on the board, yes! no! maybe!

The Cubs finished eighth in the NL in runs scored in 2007. That's less impressive than it sounds, and it doesn't sound all that impressive. Wrigley Field played like the Wrigley of old last year, inflating offense by 6-7%. The Cubs scored well at home (as we all should) but were next to last in the NL in runs scored on the road. Somebody please explain to me why Lou Piniella had Alfonso Soriano, who has lots of power (.560 slugging) but is not overly skilled at reaching base (.337 OBP) was leading off, while Mark DeRose, with modest power (.420 slugging) but a .371 OBP was hitting sixth?

LF Alfonso Soriano
SS Ryan Theriot (really? I mean, really?)
RF Kosuke Fukudome
1B Derrek Lee
3B Aramis Ramirez
2B Mark DeRosa (again with the sixth spot!)
C Geovany Soto
CF Felix Pie

I'm sure that Bob will have more to say about this, if this really is the lineup that Sweet Lou goes with. I'm just going to point out the absurdity of having the guy with the .560 slugging average leading off and the guy who had the .443 OBP in Japan batting third. And what is the fascination with Ryan Theriot, anyway? Just because the Cardinals had David Eckstein, the Cubs need one just like him? I'm sure that Theriot is fun and scrappy and inspirational, but he can't really hit (certainly not enough to be a top of the order hitter) and really can't play short all that well. If the Cubs really don't want to play Ronny Cedeno, they really need to look around at some real options. I think that the White Sox have a shortstop they'd like to ditch donate to a worthy cause.

Pitchers, or belly itchers?

Cubs pitching in 2007 was absolutely incredible, not that anyone noticed. Despite their bandbox of a ballpark, the Cubs allowed only 690 runs, second in the NL only to the Padres, who get to do their pitching in Petko Field. Every Cubs starter was better than league average, even Jason Marquis.

SP Carlos Zambrano
SP Ted Lilly
SP Rich Hill
SP Jon Leiber
SP Sean Marshall or Jason Marquis or Ryan Dempster

CL Kerry Wood/Bobby Howry/Carlos Marmol or most likely all three.
RP The above plus Scott Eyre

Zambrano is the ace and gets all the attention, some of it unwanted. Geovany Soto probably knows better than to emulate Michael Barrett when dealing with your leading starter. Ted Lilly was the real story in 2007; he cut a huge chunk out of his walk rate while maintaining his strikeouts and was really the Cubs best pitcher. Hill struck out 183 batters in 195 innings. Leiber, Marshall, Marquis and Dempster are all decent back of the rotation starters. Lou Piniella has some history of success fashioning a bullpen out of a group of hard throwers; just keep Bobby Ayala way from the mix.

Witnesses for the defense

The pitching staff didn't do all the work; the Cubs were the league's most efficient defensive team in 2007. When a ball was put into play by opposing hitters, the Cubs turned it into an out 71% of the time. Flipping Jones and Soriano was a turning point in the season; Soriano was poor in center (to no one's great surprise) but was outstanding in left. Pie should at least be strong in center even if he struggles with the bat. Aramis Ramirez, so often maligned for his play at third, was outstanding in 2007. A real shortstop is still needed here.

Farm aid

With Pie and Soto already graduated to the starting lineup, the Cubs don't have any more impact players at the upper levels. Pitcher Donald Veal made big strides with his control over the second half of the season at double A; he could be in the running for a rotation spot in 2009. Eric Patterson has speed and a decent bat and no defensive position.

Watch out for that tree!

The Cubs wisely got rid of pretty much anyone who might qualify for this category: Michael Barrett, Cliff Floyd, Jacque Jones. They did bring in a new candidate in Jon Leiber, but they have plenty of other options if Leiber tanks. Scott Eyre is another candidate, but who would know or care if Scott Eyre takes a dive?

I can make a hat, or a broach...

The NL Central is a weak division, and the Cubs are a good team. A team in this division that features Soriano, Lee, Ramirez, Fukudome, Zambrano, and Lilly has every right to consider itself the favorite. The only problem is that the Brewers are a pretty fair country ball club too, and if the Cubs are going to do stupid things like making Ryan Theriot the everyday shortstop and number two hitter, it's going to cost them. With Fukudome and Soto replacing Floyd and Barrett they have upgraded two positions. Getting a real shortstop would make it three and give this team a chance at winning 95 games.

Texas Rangers 2008 Preview: Another Long, Hot, Losing Summer

2007...the year that sucked/was groovy (pick one)

There's not a lot of good that one can say about a 75-87 team, so I won't waste much time here trying. The Rangers offense was mediocre, their best hitter was traded at the deadline, and the rotation was a complete disaster. Over the winter the Rangers traded a pitching prospect for a high upside/high risk center fielder, signed a talented but fragile and troublesome rightfielder, and a high upside/high risk starter. Well, it beats signing a high risk/low upside problem like Sammy Sosa again.

They can put it on the board, yes! no! maybe!

Usually the AL version of Coors Field, the Ballpark in Urban Sprawl played as a pitchers park in 2007. However, the Rangers still scored more runs at home than on the road. They actually were sixth in the AL both at home and on the road. After trading Mark Teixeira to Atlanta the Rangers lacked a power core in the lineup, with only Sosa (21), Brad Wilkerson (20) and Ian Kinsler (20) reaching 20 homers. Niether Sosa nor Wilkerson is returning in 2008. Michael Young racked up his customary 200 hits and Hank Blalock had his best season since 2004, albeit one that was limited to 58 games by injuries.

LF Marlon Byrd/Frank Catalanotto
2B Ian Kinsler
SS Michael Young
CF Josh Hamilton
3B Hank Blalock
RF Milton Bradley
1B Ben Broussard/Chris Shelton
C Jarrod Saltalamacchia/Gerald Laird
DH Jason Botts

If your DH is batting ninth, you either have an awesome lineup or don't understand the concept of the DH. You make the call here. To be fair, the DH spot will probably be a group effort and probably will move around the order. A DH named Bonds, on the other hand, could just stay in the third spot all year, but the Rangers don't seem interested in that. It is a bit scary to think of what a healthy Hamilton might do if the Ballpark returns to its usually Coors Lite ways. It's also scary to realize that Hamilton will be battling serious addiction problems for the rest of his life.

Pitchers, or belly itchers?

Rangers pitchers took full advantage of the suddenly helpful Ballpark in 2007, allowing half a run fewer at home than on the road. That didn't make them good, just slightly less lousy. No one who started more than two games for the Rangers last year had an ERA under 4.50; seven of them were over 5.00. The bullpen was much better; how could it be worse?

SP Kevin Millwood
SP Vincente Padilla
SP Jason Jennings
SP Brandon McCarthy
SP Kason Gabbard

CL C.J. Wilson
RP Eddie Guardado
RP Joaquin Benoit

This isn't a championship quality rotation. No one in this group has the ability to step forward and pitch at the level of a Beckett, a Lackey, a Sabbathia, or a Verlander. It's hard to see any of these guys as even a number two on the better AL teams. Wilson does not project as anything other than a temporary closer. Guardado is 37 and coming back from two years of injuries. Benoit is the best pitcher in the bullpen and could be closing by mid season, although he doesn't project as a new Mariano Rivera, either.

Witnesses for the defense

The Rangers made the most errors of any AL club in 2007 and were middle of the road in defensive efficiency. Hamilton brings a great arm to centerfield. Bradley and Byrd in the corners are defensive improvements over what Texas fans have been watching there lately. Young is a Jeter-esque shortstop, and by that I don't mean a guy who should be mistakenly given Gold Glove awards.

Farm aid

The Rangers have been upgrading their farm system. The bad news is that most of the better prospects are not anywhere near major league ready. Righthander Eric Hurley and lefthander Matt Harrison are likely to join the rotation sometime later this year. Neither looks like a number one starter but both would be upgrades over the likes of Kason Gabbard.

Watch out for that tree!

Millwood, 33 this year, allowed a boatload of hits in 2007. If the Rangers aren't contending by July (which seems likely) they should try to find a taker for him before his declining strikeout rate sinks further. Of more concern is a 27 year old outfielder. Josh Hamilton, as you all probably know, missed several years of his career due to drug addiction problems about as serious as you can have. While we'd all love to believe that he showed in 2007 that his problems are behind him, problems like that never are. Every day of the rest of his life will be a struggle, and if he misses a step, his career could end just like that.

I can make a hat, or a broach...

With some luck this could be a .500 team, but the odds are against it. The starting pitching is just not good enough, and the offense, while potentially good, isn't strong enough to carry the pitching. GM Jon Daniels needs to remain focussed on the farm system and should explore any offers for Michael Young, his most valuable veteran trade chit. Daniels didn't hesitate to send Teixeira, a better player than Young, to Atlanta a year ago for a good package of prospects. It would be best for the franchise to do the same with Young.

Oakland Athletics 2008 Preview: Planting a Field of Beane Sprouts

2007...the year that sucked/was groovy (pick one)

When a team has been a pennant contender for eight straight years, is expected to be one again, and collapses so badly that the GM decides to tear the team apart and completely rebuild, you have a pretty good definition of a year that sucked. Injuries to Rich Harden (surprise!) Eric Chavez, Huston Street, Justin Duchscherer, Bobby Crosby (double surprise!) , Mark Kotsay (triple surprise!) and many, many more kept the Capital Corridor route busy all season long. On the bright side, the members of the next good A's team broke in impressively (Travis Buck, Daric Barton, Kurt Suzuki). Over the winter GM Billy (Author of Moneyball) Billy Beane traded away his best hitter and his best starter for a truckload of excellent prospects.

They can put it on the board, yes! no! maybe!

Antivirus Company Field crushed offense in 2007, making the A's offense look much worse than it actually was. The Athletics finished fourth in the league in runs scored on the road, but overall finished eleventh in runs as they scored only 4.09 runs at home. Jack Cust responded to his first real opportunity by hitting 25 homers and drawing 105 walks, then was named in the Mitchell report (for those who care about that). Rookie Travis Buck missed half the season with an injury but hit .288-.377-.474 as a 23 year old who skipped AAA.

CF Chris Denorfia
1B Daric Barton
RF Travis Buck
DH Jack Cust
3B Eric Chavez
2B Mark Ellis
LF Carlos Gonzalez
SS Bobby Crosby
C Kurt Suzuki

Oakland fan is despairing over the rebuilding A's lineup, but this actually isn't all that bad. Buck has breakout potential written all over him (not literally) . Barton's power potential has been a subject of debate but at worst he's a hitter in the Mark Grace mold. Gonzalez may start the season at Sacramento (a good thing for me) but probably won't take long to displace Emil Brown. He's another potential star.

Pitchers, or belly itchers?

While the park made the offense look worse than it actually was, the inverse was true of the pitchers. The A's allowed 4.32 runs per home game but that jumped to 5.04 on the road. Dan Haren had a fine year and made himself worth a bundle of prospects, but Rich Harden broke down immediately and left a huge void in the rotation. The bullpen lost closer Huston Street and backup closer Justin Duchscherer leaving the likes of Jay Marshall (6.43 ERA), Kiko Calero (5.75) and Colby Lewis (6.45) to take their lumps.

SP Joe Blanton
SP Rich Harden (in their dreams)
SP Chad Guadin
SP Justin Duchscherer
SP Lenny DiNardo

CL Huston Street
RP Alan Embree
RP Santiago Casilla

The most interesting questions on this staff are (1) how long before Blanton, Street, and Embree are traded and (2) how many good prospects will Beane get back for them? If Harden shows that he can actually pitch more than four games a year he may go too while he might actually have some value. Look for Gio Gonzalez, James Simmons, Greg Smith, and Andrew Bailey in the rotation by August, and Fautino De Los Santos and Jerry Blevins to quickly reach the bullpen.

Witnesses for the defense

Despite all the juggling caused by the injuries, the 2007 Athletics were above average in both fielding percentage and defensive efficiency. Ellis is a Gold Glove candidate at second; Chavez still has the skills to be one at third, if healthy. The rest of defense is solid, unless Emil Brown, whose defensive style could be described as rodeo clown, wins the job in left. Under the Beane administration, the A's have gone from thinking that defense is a distant second to offense (the Jeremy Giambi in centerfield years) to realizing that defense is critical to success.

Farm aid

The story of 2008 for the Athletics will be the development of a huge group of talented young players. Besides all of the young players already mentioned, the A's will be watching the development of pitchers Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Dan Meyer, and Henry Rodriguez, first basemen Chris Carter and Sean Doolittle, and outfielders Aaron Cunningham, Corty Brown, Jermaine Mitchell, and Javier Herrera. This group is 2-3 years away but is very talented. The A's won't be out of contention for long.

Watch out for that tree!

Eric Chavez is only 30, but players with back trouble get old fast. He could also be moved if he looks healthy and Beane can find a team willing to take his contract.

I can make a hat, or a broach...

This team isn't as bad as a lot of people are making it out to be. That's not to say that they are contenders, far from it. However, there is a lot of talent here already and more is coming up fast. The AL West is currently fairly weak; only the Angels can be mentioned with the elite AL teams. It's not likely but the Athletics could break .500 this year and could even finish ahead of the Mariners with some luck.

Seattle Mariners 2008 Preview: Making Their Bedard and Sleeping In It

2007...the year that sucked/was groovy (pick one)

The 2007 Mariners won 88 games in 2007 and chased the Angels Of Several Southern California Towns throughout the summer, eventually falling six games short. That seems fairly groovy. However, the bilges were carrying more water than the captains think. Opponents outscored the Mariners last year 813-794, and while the Mariners deserve credit for posting a record better than the sum of the parts, the shiny won-lost record disguised the fact that the roster was not really that of a contending team. Emboldened by the idea that they are playoff contenders, management made a major trade this winter, sending four excellent prospects and a run in the mill reliever to Baltimore for Eric Bedard.

They can put it on the board, yes! no! maybe!

The Mariners finished exactly at league average in runs scored in 2007. Their home park, Safeco Field, depressed scoring by about 3%, but while the Mariners did score more runs on the road, they didn't score enough to be a real offensive power. Ichiro Suzuki continued to be Ichiro!, rapping out 238 hits and scoring 111 runs. But the Mariners were playing a DH who hit six homers, a first baseman who batted .205, and a middle infield combo that contributed next to nothing to the offense. Nothing was done over the winter to improve any of those areas.

CF Ichiro!
DH Jose Vidro
3B Adrian Beltre
LF Raul Ibanez
RF Brad Wilkerson
1B Richie Sexson
C Kenji Johjima
2B Jose Lopez
SS Yuniesky Betancourt

Not to be rude, but that looks about as much like a championship lineup as this looks like a real woman. OK, you got me, that was pretty rude. Putting Ichiro! on the top of this lineup is like putting a cherry on top of a bowl of manure and calling it ice cream. Vidro is 33 and comes with a well stocked injury cabinet; the minute his average falls below .300 he's worthless as a hitter. Beltre has a little power and a little speed and a .327 career on base percentage. Betancourt drew 15 walks in 155 games last year; Lopez 20 in 149. The wheels came completely off of Sexson's wagon last year; at 33 don't be expecting them to ever fit back on properly again.

Of course, the Mariners could add a huge upgrade to this shabby lineup with the stroke of a pen, by signing this obscure free agent. Team management appears to have little to no interest in such a move, apparently feeling that signing Bonds would upset Ken Rosenthal.

Pitchers, or belly itchers?

Playing in a pitcher's park, the 2007 Mariners allowed more runs than the league average. Felix Hernandez remains more the Dauphin than the King, although he remained healthy didn't step backwards. Jarrod Washburn and Miguel Batista were solid innings eaters in the rotation. Closer J.J. Putz put up numbers that are usually found in high school, allowing the ridiculous totals of 37 hits and 13 walks in 71 2/3 innings. Twelve guys who pitched for the 2007 Mariners posted ERAs above 5.00. I guess that could be classified as belly itching.

SP Eric Bedard
SP Dauphin Felix Hernandez
SP Jarrod Washburn
SP Miguel Batista
SP Carlos Silva

CL J.J. Putz
RP Brandon Morrow
RP Ryan Rowland-Smith

Bedard is an outstanding talent who improves the rotation considerably over Jeff Weaver, Horacio Ramirez, and Jason Davis. He also takes over the number one spot in the rotation, relieving some of the pressure on Hernandez. Hernandez retains all of his enormous talent and could certainly break through in 2008. The remaining three starters won't be confused with Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz, but are all capable of 200 innings of league average work, which is valuable. Putz is one of the top two or three closers in the AL. Morrow has a great fastball but absolutely no control. He does have a lot of upside as either a starter or a reliever if he does begin to throw strikes. Rowland-Smith is not the guy who fought Fu Manchu but a decent lefty specialist.

Witnesses for the defense

Besides not being much of a scoring machine, the Mariners lineup isn't much into the fielding thing either. They didn't make a lot of errors; that'll happen when you don't get to a lot of balls in the first place. The Mariners were the second least efficient team in the AL in turning batted balls into outs last year. Ichiro!, Lopez, and Beltre are above average fielders at their positions, everyone else is less so. Replacing Guillen in right with Wilkerson isn't going to do anything to turn that around. If the Mariners aren't going to play guys who can hit, they should at least find some more who can field and help out the pitching staff that way.

Farm aid

The Bedard trade cost the Mariners one of the game's very best prospects (Adam Jones), an outstanding pitching prospect (Chris Tillman) and two other decent young arms. Catcher Jeff Clement is a lefthanded power bat who is ready to be a regular major league catcher now, but is blocked by one of the Mariners' better players in Johjima. The Mariners will try to find a spot for his bat somehow; they need it. Rightfielder Wladimir Balentien is a slugger with 40 homer potential who could snag the rightfield job out from under Wilkerson with a hot spring. Warning: use of this young player may lead to excessive strikeouts. Robert Rohrbaugh is a lefthanded starter who will likely get the first call if the rotation needs a bailout; he can fill a major league rotation spot but has no star potential. There are some very fine prospects at the lower levels of the system as well.

Watch out for that tree!

The warning comes a bit late for Richie Sexson, whose career as an effective hitter pretty much came to a crashing halt last year. Sexson starting dismally and actually got worse, putting up a .205-.288-.371 line over the second half. The Mariners owe him $14 million this year, the last year of a four-year contract, so they're probably stuck with him. Ibanez is 36 and isn't exactly Ted Williams at the plate; once he slips he'll slip badly. Batista is 37 and while he's been a league average pitcher over the last four years, he hasn't been anything more than that, either.

I can make a hat, or a broach...

Although they obtained an outstanding power arm, the Bedard trade was a mistake. The Mariners simply were not as good in 2007 as management thought, and do not have the talent to overcome the Angels for the AL West title or any of the better teams in the East or Central for a wild card berth. At best, this is an 85 win team, and they may not even reach that unless they pull some offense out of a hat, or their sleeve, or somewhere. This will be a disappointing season in Seattle.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim near Chino About 10 Miles From Yorba Linda Angels 2008 Preview: With A Name Like That, They Have To Be Good

2007...the year that sucked/was groovy

The 2007 Angels scored more runs and allowed fewer than any other team in their division. Needless to say, they were fairly easy winners in an AL West that has become the weakest division in the league. In the postseason they were no match for the Red Sox, but then, who was? The Angels made a couple of major moves over the winter, signing center fielder Torii Hunter as a free agent and trading shortstop Orlando Cabrera to the White Sox for starting pitcher Jon Garland.

They can put it on the board, yes! no! maybe!

They did in 2007, yes. However, that comes with some caveats. Their home park, historically fairly neutral, played as a hitters park in 2007, inflating offense by about 5%. The Angels averages over a full run per game more at home than on the road, finishing sixth in the AL in road scoring. Only two teams (see if you can guess which ones*) hit fewer homers than the Angels total of 123. As always, most of the lineup concentrated on hitting for average at the expense of waiting out a walk. That's a good strategy when you hit .284 as a team, and the Angels are very good at challenging opposing defenses by putting a lot of balls into play and running aggressively on the bases. But batting averages tend to fluctuate a lot, and if you have neither excessive power nor the patience to draw a lot of walks, your offense suddenly becomes very empty if the average falls off. In the postseason, the Angels batted only .192, drew seven walks in three games and hit no homers.

3B Chone Figgins
2B Howie Kendrick
RF Vladimir Guerrero
DH Garrett Anderson
CF Torii Hunter
1B Casey Kotchman
LF Gary Matthews Jr.
C Mike Napoli
SS Erick Aybar/Macir Izturis

Manager Mike Scoscia will rotate his outfielders and his DH, partly to relieve wear and tear on the knees of Vlad Guerrero and partly to help cover the colossal waste of money that was the signing of Gary Mathews Jr. Matthews was a terrible disappointment only to anyone who looked at his entire career record as a whole and not his record in one season in the best hitters park in the league. Hunter adds power (only Guerrero hit more than 20 homers for the 2007 Angels) and pushes Matthews into the role of very expensive fourth outfielder. GM Tony Reagins needs to find a way to push him even further, like to the Pirates or the Giants, and give his playing time to Reggie Willits, who put up a .391 on base percentage in 2007. Guerrero, Figgins, Anderson, and Kendrick all can and have hit over .300 in the major leagues, and Kotchman came within two hits of joining them last year.

Pitchers, or belly itchers?

Despite playing in a hitters park, the Angels actually allowed more runs on the road than they did at home. I have no idea how to explain that. John Lackey was one of the top five starters in the AL, Kelvin Escobar had a very fine season, Jered Weaver was good if not as awesome as many had expected, and the bullpen remained one of the league's strongest. Angels pitchers struck out more batters than any other AL team and walked a below average number.

SP John Lackey
SP Jered Weaver
SP Jon Garland
SP Kelvin Escobar
SP Ervin Santana

CL Francisco Rodriguez
RP Scot Shields
RP Darren Oliver

Lackey has everything needed to remain among the game's best starters. Weaver has everything it takes to join him, even if it doesn't happen this year. Garland is a solid innings eater. Escobar will miss at least the first month and very likely more with shoulder inflamation. Joe Saunders is very capable of supplying league average pitching in his stead. Santana was mentioned as a trade chit over the winter but likely will stay put with Escobar out. Rodriguez struck out 90 batters in 67 1/3 innings last year. Shields had a career high ERA but most of his component numbers remained pretty stable; I would expect him to again be a fine setup man.

Witnesses for the defense

The success of the pitching staff came despite the defense, which was mediocre at best. Figgins is a poor defensive third baseman, and Kendrick will never win a gold glove at second. Anderson was once a fine left fielder but that's no longer the case. Hunter in center and Matthews in left is a defensive upgrade. Willits would also be better in left than Anderson, by a considerable amount. Both shortstop candidates have good glove scouting reports but must show that they can live up to them.

Farm aid

Brandon Wood has been a top prospect for several years now, but the Angels seem to doubt his ability to win a job at the major league level. He will compete this spring for time at both short and third. Although not at the same time. That wouldn't work out very well. He offers plenty of untapped power for a team that could use it. Righthander Nick Adenhart will start the season at triple A but could be ready to take over a rotation spot, if needed, by later this summer. Australian reliever Rich Thompson is ready to add his name to the bullpen mix. Catcher Hank Conger is a fine prospect with strong offensive potential; he's two or three years away from a major league job unless his political talent steers him towards a presidential run.

Watch out for that tree

Anderson, 36 years old this season, is the most likely Angel to fall off quickly. He's not a plus defender and hasn't reached the 20 homer level since 2003. Figgins bases his entire game around speed and singles; at 30 both are going to start becoming shorter in supply.

I can make a hat, or a broach...

A few short years ago the AL West was the strongest division in baseball. It's now arguably the weakest. The Angels are far and away the best team in it; the Mariners are not as strong as their record of 2007 would indicate, the Athletics are rebuilding from the ground up, and the Rangers seem to move in circles. Although the Angels have made a few questionable decisions and show some weaknesses, they also have depth both in the lineup and on the pitching staff. Willits, Wood, and Saunders would be playing regularly this year for the majority of teams in MLB, and the bullpen seems bottomless. Having two or three of the best players in the league at their positions (Guerrero, Lackey, Rodriguez) doesn't hurt either. The Angels should have no trouble in disposing of their divisional rivals, but tougher times face them in any postseason series against serious opposition.

Florida Marlins 2008 Preview: Oh Give Me a Home

2007...the year that sucked/was groovy (pick one)

The 2007 Marlins pulled off the amazing feat of having two of the top five players in their league in the lineup all year long and still being a terrible team. Outstanding years by Miguel Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez and support from Jeremy Hermida, Josh Willingham, and Dan Uggla gave the team a formidable offense, but the pitching staff was easily the worst in the league. No one who started as much as a single game for the Fish posted an ERA of under 4.65. Over the winter management traded away the Marlins best player and best known pitcher for one super prospect and one good one and signed a fossil to crowd the outfield picture. Of more interest to team ownership, they appear to have finally won their heroic struggle for public funding from the taxpayers of Miami and Dade County for a new cash cow ballpark.

They can put it on the board, yes! no! maybe!

They certainly did it well in 2007, finishing sixth in the NL in runs scored while playing in park that was basically neutral. The trade of Cabrera pretty much eliminates any chance that the 2008 team will do the same.

CF Cody Ross
2B Dan Uggla
SS Hanley Ramirez
RF Jeremy Hermida
LF Josh Willingham
1B Mike Jacobs
3B Dallas McPherson
C Mike Rabelo/Matt Treanor

This still isn't a bad lineup without Cabrera, just not a great one and not one that will be outscoring the Phillies or Mets or Braves. Ramirez pretty much does it all at the plate, compiling both 83 extra base hits and 51 stolen bases. Hermida came on strong in the second half and slugged .501 for the season. Uggla has good power for a second baseman but doesn't really have the OBP to bat second. Ross will get a chance to play center and lead off based on his .411 OBP in 66 games last year, but nothing in his previous major or minor league record indicates that he can repeat this. Alejandro De Aza is younger and a better prospect but was overmatched at the big league level last year and needs more minor league time.

Pitchers, or belly itchers?

Marlins starters were about as bad as can be last year. The effects of Joltless Joe Girardi's scorched earth run to 78 wins in 2006 left the young staff burned out, injured, and ineffective for 2007. Of course, that wasn't Girardi's problem. Woe unto you, Phillip Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Ian Kennedy! A comparison of 2006/2007 ERAs:

Dontrell Willis: 3.87/5.17
Scott Olsen: 4.04/5.81
Josh Johnson: 3.10/7.47 and hurt
Ricky Nolasco: 4.82/5.48 and hurt
Anibal Sanchez: 2.83/4.80 and hurt

The bullpen for the Marlins was outstanding; it had to be, or they'd have given up eight runs a game.

SP Scott Olsen
SP Sergio Mitre
SP Andrew Miller
SP Mark Hendrickson
SP Ricky Nolasco/Rick VandenHurk

CL Kevin Gregg
RP Matt Lindstrom
RP Taylor Tankersley

No one among the starters took a step forward in 2007 and it's not easy to pick out one who seems likely to do so this year. Miller has the best breakthrough potential of the lot but was clearly not ready in his 2007 callup with Detroit. Olsen, Mitre, and Nolasco have good arms but will need to gain consistency and better command, which takes time. The bullpen should remain a little known plus.

Witnesses for the defense

I don't think that these guys were witnesses, I think that they were the defendants. The 2007 Marlins were the worst fielding team in the NL, finishing last in both defensive efficiency and fielding percentage, and by fairly substantial margins. Ramirez and Uggla are as bad a keystone pair as you can imagine, and Jacobs isn't exactly Keith Hernandez at first. Willingham is a converted catcher playing the outfield. The Marlins didn't really have a center fielder; ironically, the best of the guys they did use defensively was converted infielder Alfredo Amezega, who can't hit. There aren't any substantial changes to the lineup, so this year's defense should be about as bad. That doesn't help the struggling pitching staff any.

Farm aid

The Cabrera trade yielded a potential superstar in center fielder Cameron Maybin. As Homer Simpson once asked of donuts, scouts wonder, "Cameron Maybin, is there nothing you can't do?" He has power, should hit for a high average, runs like a deer, and has a great arm. However, he really should start this season at triple A; he jumped from double A to the Tigers last year but did not play well at the major league level. Pitcher Gaby Hernandez could help the rotation at some point this year. The rest of the better prospects are all at the AA level or lower and there is no reason to rush them.

Watch out for that tree!

I have no idea why management wanted Luis Gonzalez. Yeah, he's a great guy and all, but he's slugged under .450 in each of the last two years and at age 40 is more likely to free fall than to rebound.

I can make a hat, or a broach...

...but I can't make any kind of a case for the 2008 Marlins being a .500 baseball team. There is certainly plenty of talent here, but much of it is damaged (the starting pitchers), not ready (Maybin), or flawed (Willingham, Uggla, even Ramirez as a shortstop). Even if the young starters do begin to improve, which they certainly might, the defense will not be doing them any favors. These fish will swim in the depths of the NL East standings. But at least we can all be happy that Jeffrey the Destroyer Loira will get a public handout.

Washington Nationals 2008 Preview: Better Things Coming in the Nation's Capital

2007...the year that sucked/was groovy

It's hard to be much excited about anything that the 2007 Nationals offered. Ryan Zimmerman continued to develop into one of the NL's best players, and Dmitri Young had a thoroughly unexpected and remarkable season. They also continued to stockpile good younger outfielders. Apart from that, their two best starters missed part or most of the season, the rest of the rotation was expansion team bad, the shortstop wasn't good either offensively or defensively, and Nook Logan was the centerfielder. The Nationals brought another end to baseball at RFK Stadium with a 73-89 season. Over the winter the team added to its collection of talented but questionable outfielders and hoped for good news on the injury front.

They can put it on the board, yes! no! maybe!

Only Petco Field in San Diego diminished offense in 2007 worse than RFK. That certainly hurts the Nationals batting stats, but doesn't justify them; the Nats were near the bottom in runs scored in road games as well. The Nats hit about a league average total of doubles, were below average in triples, and were last in home runs. You can't say that they had a running team either, as they stole only 69 bases. Young, Zimmerman, and Ryan Church were the only hitters who could be said to be above average. Austin Kearns and Ronnie Belliard were ok, and Logan, Felipe Lopez, and Brian Schneider were bad. Wily Mo Pena hit well in 37 games after being acquired from Boston and figures to land a starting job in 2008.

CF Lastings Milledge
2B Ronnie Belliard
RF Austin Kearns
1B Dmitri Young
3B Ryan Zimmerman
LF Wily Mo Pena
C Paul LoDuca
SS Christian Guzman

Here, maybe, are the beginnings of the first good Nationals team. Zimmerman is one of the most valuable properties in the game right now. Kearns could have a huge season if reports that brand new Nationals Park will play well for hitters are correct. Pena, Milledge, and Elijah Dukes all come to Washington with plenty of talent and plenty of baggage. Will they offer Washington new hope, or will they wind up leaving in disgrace?

Pitchers, or belly itchers?

RFK Stadium helped disguise a poor staff in 2007. The Nationals allowed just 4.38 runs per game at home, one of the best records in the league, but 5.28 per game on the road, one of the worst. Losing top starter John Patterson after just seven very poor starts punched a big hole in the rotation (and through my fantasy teams, too). Shawn Hill was impressive in 16 starts but also missed time. No other starter pitched well. The bullpen tandem of Chad Cordero and Jon Rauch pitched well most of the season but wore down late.

SP Shawn Hill
SP John Patterson (or so they hope)
SP Matt Chico
SP Jason Bergman
SP John Lannan

CL Chad Cordero
RP Jon Rauch
RP Luis Ayala

Hill probably doesn't have real number one potential but could develop into a solid number two, which isn't at all bad. Patterson has number one stuff but injuries have kept his career as much a captive as Number Six. Chico, Bergman, and Lannan also have possibilities of becoming useful pitchers at the back end of a good rotation. Cordero is a good closer who should be dealt this year while he can still bring in more young talent. Rauch is also valued by good clubs and could fetch parts of a developing contender.

Witnesses for the defense

The Nationals fielded a pretty decent defensive team in 2007. Although they made a higher than average number of errors, they were efficient at turning batted balls into outs. Zimmerman is a sensational fielder at third and Kearns is a fine rightfielder. Milledge has the tools to be a fine centerfielder.

Farm aid

After years of neglect as the former Expos franchise was left to rot, the farm system is beginning to produce a lot of talent. They've also done a good job recently of picking talented prospects who have fallen out of favor with other teams, such as Milledge, Dukes, and Tyler Clippard. Zimmerman and Hill are the first of the really good ones. The best prospects are a little ways away and the Nationals would be wise not to rush them. Outfielders Justin Maxwell, Chris Marrero, and Michael Burgess will be competing with the talented outfielders already here within a year or so. Pitchers Clippard, Ross Detwiler, Jordan Zimmerman (can't have too many Zimmermans), Jack Mcgeary, and Adam Carr will be pushing for jobs on the staff by 2009. There is a lot more; this is a very deep system.

Watch out for that tree!

Dmitri Young's comeback season was a nice story, but it should have been taken with more skepticism by Washington management than they did. Young has always been able to hit, but he's not exactly known for his physical conditioning. Paul Lo Duca is not aging gracefully; he comes into camp recovering from knee surgery, not what you want in a 36 year old catcher who doesn't really contribute much besides singles. Rauch is not old but has been worked hard for the last two years.

I can make a hat, or a broach...

Almost unnoticed, this franchise is making progress. I've never been a Jim Bowden fan, but as Nationals GM he has been presiding over a very solid accumulation of talent. The Nationals will be an improved team in 2008 even though they will likely not move up in the standings.

Atlanta Braves 2008 Preview: Don't You Forget About Me

2007...the year that sucked/was groovy (pick one)

Since 1991 the Atlanta Braves have become very accustomed to reaching the postseason. No team has ever had a streak like that of the 1991-2005 Braves: at no time during that span was there a postseason played in which the Braves did not participate. All good things come to an end, and the Braves streak ended in 2006. They came into 2007 hoping to revive it and frequently looked like they were almost to the top of the hill only to go falling back again. Although frustrated, the Braves did finish five games better than the previous season. They also made an in-season trade which will benefit them for some time, but did lose both their centerfielder and shortstop over the winter.

They can put it on the board, yes! no! maybe!

Despite a very disappointing season from Andruw Jones and playing a first baseman with a dismal .652 OPS for two thirds of the season, the 2007 Braves were quite proficient at scoring runs. Chipper Jones led the way with a tremendous season, one of the best of his career. Pretty much everyone in the lineup contributed, including reserves Willie Harris and Yunel Escobar, and Mark Teixeira was everything that the Braves hoped for after his acquisition.

SS Yunel Escobar
CF Mark Kotsay
3B Chipper Jones
1B Mark Teixeira
RF Jeff Francoeur
C Brian McCann
LF Matt Diaz
2B Kelly Johnson

Escobar's performance made Renteria expendable. Johnson and Kotsay should swap places and probably will; back problems have made Kotsay a shadow of his former self and Johnson is by far the better hitter. The three through six hitters are as good as any similar group in the game, although Jones can be expected to miss 20-30 games every year with injuries. I expect that the Braves will continue to be among the better scoring teams in the NL.

Pitchers, or belly itchers?

The days of the greatest starting rotation in history are long since over, but the Braves are still fairly effective at run prevention. John Smoltz showed no signs at age 40 of slowing down, going 14-8, 3.11 and striking out 197 batters. Tim Hudson rebounded from a poor 2006 by adding another fine season to his career. Chuck James was league average but the rest of the rotation struggled.

SP John Smoltz
SP Tim Hudson
SP Tom Glavine
SP Chuck James
SP Mike Hampton (yeah, right)

CL Rafael Soriano
RP Peter Moylan
RP Will Ohman

Anyone think that the Braves will really get anything out of Hampton this year? Let's see a show of hands. No, me neither. It's much more likely that rookies Jair Jurrjens or Jo-Jo Reyes will wind up filling the back spot in the rotation. Smoltz and Hudson remain a fine tandem at the top of the rotation. Glavine was effective for the Mets in 2006 until the final two weeks and is still capable of turning in league average work and bitching about Questech. Soriano is often unhittable, but leaves some balls up in the zone, leading to some long game-ending homers.

Witnesses for the defense

The Braves are an above average defensive team. Although Andruw Jones is not the centerfielder he used to be (who is?) he will be missed; Kotsay was once a fine centerfielder himself but isn't any more on most days. Francoeur has a cannon arm and covers ground well in right. Escobar has a fine arm himself but must show better range at short. Johnson was a work in progress as a second baseman but should at least be average. Teixeira is a fine defensive first baseman.

Farm aid

The Braves have an outstanding scouting and development program and have more potential stars in the farm system than almost any other team. Brandon Jones will at the very least platoon with Diaz in left field this year. Jurrjens and Reyes will get chances in the rotation and should at least be league average as rookies. Shortstop Brent Lillibridge will start the season at triple A and is available as either a backup plan if Escobar fails or as a trade chit if Escobar succeeds. Most of the rest of the talent is still at lower levels but keep an eye on centerfielder Jordan Schafer, who has the abilities to be everything Andruw Jones was. He could move up fast.

Watch out for that tree!

Most of the Braves key performers aren't any guys who are in danger of total collapse. Glavine's season ending fade in 2007 is worrisome, especially since his strikeout rate fell way off. He's the Brave most likely to hit the wall. Kotsay is 32 with a bad back. That can't end well. Smoltz and Jones may miss time with injuries but are still very effective when they can play.

I can make a hat, or a broach...

The general consensus in the media and in some opposing clubhouses is the Mets and Phillies will be the teams competing for the NL East pennant. That may well be true, but the Braves can't be counted out. This is a good ballclub with a solid lineup and a deep pitching staff with a number of options. I can't see any reason why the Braves can't finish ahead of either or both of the other contenders over the long haul of the season.

New York Mets 2008 Preview: Santana Claus Is Coming To Town

2007...the year that sucked/was groovy (pick one)

The 2007 Mets pulled off an amazing feat in 2007. They spent 140 days in first place, and yet the team and its fans agree: the season sucked. Leading the pack by eleven games on September 12, the Mets folded like beach furniture, losing 12 of their final 17 games. They could have made the postseason despite that by winning their final game, but Tom Glavine got wiped out in a seven run first inning and the dismal Marlins sent the Mets packing for the winter. I'd heard tell that Proven Veterans (tm) like Glavine were magically delicious in those situations, but I guess I was misinformed. Management decided to bring in someone else to pitch games like that, and found that the Twins were anxious to unload this Santana fella for some guys who vaguely resemble prospects. Bold predictions aside, the Mets and Phillies should battle it out down to the wire again.

They can put it on the board, yes! no! maybe!

Shea Stadium is usually a pitchers park, and it was again in 2007, but it took an unusually heavy toll on the Mets' offense. The Mets finished second in the league in runs scored on the road, but 11th at home. Guys named Carlos didn't fare well there at all. Carlos Beltran slugged 100 points less at home. Carlos Delgado didn't even reach replacement level wearing the home whites, putting up a .225-.313-.368 mark compared to .288-.351-.519 while wearing gray. David Wright had about as great a season as you can ask no matter what park he was appearing in.

SS Jose Reyes
2B Luis Castillo
3B David Wright
CF Carlos Beltran
1B Carlos Delgado
LF Moises Alou
RF Ryan Church
C Brian Schneider

A formidable group, but the Mets should be spending the spring looking for depth. Alou really can't be counted on for more than about 90 games a year. Delgado has a huge platoon split; finding someone to timeshare with him at first would help a lot. Hey, here's a guy like that right here, and he's in camp! I admit to being almost as wrong about Reyes as I was about Bobby Jenks; he's turned into a fine leadoff man. Wright and Beltran are two of the best players in the game.

Pitchers or belly itchers?

Overall the Mets were slightly above average on the hill in 2007. Glavine was slightly below average, but John Maine and Oliver Perez pitched very well and Orlando Hernandez was his usual self; effective when he was healthy enough to pitch. Pedro Martinez came back in September and showed that he can still be effective. Of course, as you may have heard, the Mets took a step to improve the rotation for 2008.

SP Johan Santana
SP John Maine
SP Oliver Perez
SP Pedro Martinez
SP Orlando Hernandez

CL Billy Wagner
RP Aaron Heilman
RP Pedro Feliciano

For quick reference, the Mets' head trainer is Ray Ramirez. Pedro, Orlando, I'm sure you know where to find him. Snark aside, that's a pretty good rotation, with some depth. Jorge Sosa gave the Mets more or less league average work as a fill in last year and is back in case he's needed again (he will be). Mike Pelfrey, the Mets' 2005 first round pick is also available. Maine (Orioles) and Perez (Pirates) are excellent illustrations of how bad organizations misjudge and fail to instruct talent and how good organizations make them useful.

Witnesses for the defense

If a team has to go deep into the pitching reserves, it helps to have a good defense to back them up. The Mets have one. Wright, Beltran, and Reyes are outstanding. Church is a good defender in right. The right side of the infield isn't getting younger and lacks range, though, and a 41 year old leftfielder isn't usually any kind of Gold Glove candidate, either.

Farm aid

Other than Pelfrey, the Mets have no good prospects close enough to the majors to be of any real help in 2008 except as trade bait. While the Santana trade stripped four prospects from the system, none of them would have been terribly useful to the major league roster this year either. Outfielder Fernando Martinez hit .271 at double A at the age of 18, which is very impressive. Many scouts project him as a middle of the order star, but he's a couple of years away.

Watch out for that tree!

Delgado is 36 and his offense has declined the past three years. However, his road performance last year leads me to think that he still has a bit of gas in the tank, even if he's not the hitter he was a few years ago. Castillo is 32 and has had leg problems; not what you want in a guy whose main asset was his speed. Alou breaks down every year; any time now will be the last time, although if he can play, he can hit. Hernandez is the pitching version of Moises Alou. Martinez pitched well in September but must be closely monitored. With the farm system not ready with replacements, injuries or sudden declines by these guys could be devastating.

I can make a hat, or a broach...

The Mets and the Phillies are loaded with talent and are expected to be two of, if not the two best, teams in the NL in 2008. But neither is foolproof. The Mets don't have a lot of depth and are counting on a number of rapidly aging players: Delgado, Alou, Castillo, Pedro Martinez, Hernandez, and Billy Wagner. On the other hand, they have Wright, Beltran, Reyes, and Santana, which is enough to carry a team a long ways. The Mets offense may be a very small step behind the Phillies, but the Phils don't have the rotation or depth in relievers that the Mets do. I think that this will be enough to push the Mets back ahead this year.

Philadelphia Phillies 2008 Preview: Score and Score Again

2007...the year that sucked/was groovy

The 2007 Phillies held first place for only four days. But the only one that mattered was September 30, when Jamie Moyer beat Washington, 6-1, while the Mets completed a stunning collapse with an 8-1 loss at home to last place Florida. The Phillies had been seven games back on September 12 and thought that they had a chance only at the wild card. The magic didn't last as they ran into the buzz saw from Colorado and went out 0-3 in the NLDS. Management shuffled a few of the chairs over the winter, losing Aaron Rowand as a free agent, trading for Brad Lidge, and signing Pedro Feliz and Geoff Jenkins.

They can put it on the board, yes! no! maybe!

Playing in a bandbox helped the Phillies' bats a bit in 2007, but not as much as you'd think. They led the NL in runs with 892, and scored the most runs on the road of any NL team. Chase Utley and Ryan Howard are just flat out great hitters, and "MVP" Jimmy Rollins, Rowand, and the much maligned Pat Burrell had terrific years.

SS Jimmy Rollins
CF Shane Victorino
2B Chase Utley
1B Ryan Howard
LF Pat Burrell
RF Geoff Jenkins/Jayson Werth
3B Pedro Feliz
C Carlos Ruiz

That's a lineup that should continue to score runs a-plenty. Rollins isn't the great leadoff hitter many in the media make him out to be; his .344 OBP is good, but five others in the Phillies lineup had better ones. Utley and Howard are the true stars in the lineup, tying each other for seventh in the league in OPS. Burrell is booed mercilessly in Philly, but he slugged .502 with a .400 OBP last year. Sorry he's not Stan Musial or something. The number eight hitter, Ruiz, had a .340 OBP.

Pitchers, or belly itchers?

Phillies pitchers weren't all that great in 2007. Injuries and a hitter's park hurt to some degree, but some of it was just plain ineffectiveness. Cole Hamels broke through with an outstanding season, 15-5, 3.39. Brett Myers, expected to be the staff ace, switched to the bullpen to cover an injury to Tom Gordon, leaving a hole in the lineup. The loss of both Freddie Garcia and Jon Leiber in June opened two more. Rookie Kyle Kendrick stepped in and filled one, Kyle Lohse gave the Phils league average innings in August and September to close the other. The bullpen was a struggle all year long.

SP Cole Hamels
SP Brett Myers
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Jamie Moyer
SP Adam Eaton

CL Brad Lidge
RP Tom Gordon
RP J.C. Romero

With good health, Hamels and Myers can be as good a frontline tandem as any in the league. Kendrick isn't going to Japan after all, but unless he increased his strikeout rate his ERA may head south. Moyer is still capable of holding down a rotation spot, his strikeout rate is still above average. Eaton was all kinds of awful and needs a replacement. Lidge was vilified in Houston but was actually pretty effective in 2007. The rest of the bullpen remains unsettled.

Witnesses for the defense

The defense was average in 2007; the Phillies didn't make a lot of errors, but didn't cover a lot of ground, either. I'm probably in the minority here, but I don't think that the Feliz signing is a bad one for the Phillies. He's a much better glove at third than anyone the Phillies had been playing there, and batting seventh his lack of OBP is less of a liability, while his power is a plus. Burrell is a really bad outfielder, there's no denying that. Utley is a terrific glove at second, while Rollins is average or a little above at short.

Farm aid

There is no one at the upper levels of the farm system who can be expected to be of much help in 2007. The two who are closest are pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Josh Outman (what an awesome name for a pitcher) but both will be in double A to start the season and shouldn't be moved to the majors before September, if then. There is s a pretty deep group of good prospects deeper in the organization; some may be moved in trades if the Phillies have a shot at winning this year.

Watch out for that tree!

Any time you have a 45 year old pitcher whose fastball can't dent bread, you have to be a bit nervous. Jamie Moyer gives up a lot of hits and homers, but he still struck out 6.01 batters per nine innings. I think he can continue his game of cat and also cat with NL hitters for another year. I'd honestly be more concerned about Kendrick, who fanned only 3.64 per nine. Jenkins' OBP fell way off last year, which is a bit surprising. If it happens again he can't hold his job.

I can make a hat, or a broach...

Right now the Phillies are engaged in a war of words with the Mets over who is the team to beat in the NL East. Of course, we're only a week into spring training, and talk is cheap. These two teams are clearly the top two in the division. I don't see either breaking away from the other and making the race into a runaway unless one has a run of either really bad or incredibly good luck. One thing that the Phillies don't have is a lot of depth. One or two untimely injuries could derail the entire season.