Atlanta Braves 2008 Preview: Don't You Forget About Me

2007...the year that sucked/was groovy (pick one)

Since 1991 the Atlanta Braves have become very accustomed to reaching the postseason. No team has ever had a streak like that of the 1991-2005 Braves: at no time during that span was there a postseason played in which the Braves did not participate. All good things come to an end, and the Braves streak ended in 2006. They came into 2007 hoping to revive it and frequently looked like they were almost to the top of the hill only to go falling back again. Although frustrated, the Braves did finish five games better than the previous season. They also made an in-season trade which will benefit them for some time, but did lose both their centerfielder and shortstop over the winter.

They can put it on the board, yes! no! maybe!

Despite a very disappointing season from Andruw Jones and playing a first baseman with a dismal .652 OPS for two thirds of the season, the 2007 Braves were quite proficient at scoring runs. Chipper Jones led the way with a tremendous season, one of the best of his career. Pretty much everyone in the lineup contributed, including reserves Willie Harris and Yunel Escobar, and Mark Teixeira was everything that the Braves hoped for after his acquisition.

SS Yunel Escobar
CF Mark Kotsay
3B Chipper Jones
1B Mark Teixeira
RF Jeff Francoeur
C Brian McCann
LF Matt Diaz
2B Kelly Johnson

Escobar's performance made Renteria expendable. Johnson and Kotsay should swap places and probably will; back problems have made Kotsay a shadow of his former self and Johnson is by far the better hitter. The three through six hitters are as good as any similar group in the game, although Jones can be expected to miss 20-30 games every year with injuries. I expect that the Braves will continue to be among the better scoring teams in the NL.

Pitchers, or belly itchers?

The days of the greatest starting rotation in history are long since over, but the Braves are still fairly effective at run prevention. John Smoltz showed no signs at age 40 of slowing down, going 14-8, 3.11 and striking out 197 batters. Tim Hudson rebounded from a poor 2006 by adding another fine season to his career. Chuck James was league average but the rest of the rotation struggled.

SP John Smoltz
SP Tim Hudson
SP Tom Glavine
SP Chuck James
SP Mike Hampton (yeah, right)

CL Rafael Soriano
RP Peter Moylan
RP Will Ohman

Anyone think that the Braves will really get anything out of Hampton this year? Let's see a show of hands. No, me neither. It's much more likely that rookies Jair Jurrjens or Jo-Jo Reyes will wind up filling the back spot in the rotation. Smoltz and Hudson remain a fine tandem at the top of the rotation. Glavine was effective for the Mets in 2006 until the final two weeks and is still capable of turning in league average work and bitching about Questech. Soriano is often unhittable, but leaves some balls up in the zone, leading to some long game-ending homers.

Witnesses for the defense

The Braves are an above average defensive team. Although Andruw Jones is not the centerfielder he used to be (who is?) he will be missed; Kotsay was once a fine centerfielder himself but isn't any more on most days. Francoeur has a cannon arm and covers ground well in right. Escobar has a fine arm himself but must show better range at short. Johnson was a work in progress as a second baseman but should at least be average. Teixeira is a fine defensive first baseman.

Farm aid

The Braves have an outstanding scouting and development program and have more potential stars in the farm system than almost any other team. Brandon Jones will at the very least platoon with Diaz in left field this year. Jurrjens and Reyes will get chances in the rotation and should at least be league average as rookies. Shortstop Brent Lillibridge will start the season at triple A and is available as either a backup plan if Escobar fails or as a trade chit if Escobar succeeds. Most of the rest of the talent is still at lower levels but keep an eye on centerfielder Jordan Schafer, who has the abilities to be everything Andruw Jones was. He could move up fast.

Watch out for that tree!

Most of the Braves key performers aren't any guys who are in danger of total collapse. Glavine's season ending fade in 2007 is worrisome, especially since his strikeout rate fell way off. He's the Brave most likely to hit the wall. Kotsay is 32 with a bad back. That can't end well. Smoltz and Jones may miss time with injuries but are still very effective when they can play.

I can make a hat, or a broach...

The general consensus in the media and in some opposing clubhouses is the Mets and Phillies will be the teams competing for the NL East pennant. That may well be true, but the Braves can't be counted out. This is a good ballclub with a solid lineup and a deep pitching staff with a number of options. I can't see any reason why the Braves can't finish ahead of either or both of the other contenders over the long haul of the season.

Off-Center

The Sporting News’ Stan McNeal was looking for an easy way to kill 650 words last week, so he mailed in a column about which potential free agent you would want roaming center field for your team: Ichiro Suzuki, Andruw Jones, or Torii Hunter?

There’s nothing intrinsically wrong with this sort of thing. Like I said, it’s an easy way to fill column inches. And, as an added bonus, you can give some props to one of your favorites. What is wrong is when you have to stretch the bounds of logic to make your point.

McNeal’s fave out of this trio is Hunter. Some of his reasoning is a bit fuzzy, even for a rag like The Sporting News (such as McNeal’s preference for Torii even though Ichiro is halfway to a Hall of Fame career, or his assertion that Hunter’s athletic-but-31-year-old body figure to “make him an elite player for many years”). But this was the bit that made me laugh out loud:

What Hunter lacks in OBP, he makes up for in the clubhouse. Because I don't work for the A's or some other stathead organization, Hunter's leadership is my differentiating factor. This stat matters, too: The Twins have reached the postseason four of the past five years. Hunter's professionalism has had something to do with that.

"He's just got that thing that not very many people have. He's special," Twins manager Ron Gardenhire says.

So what do you prefer? Reaching base or reaching out to teammates? Running up pitch counts or running into walls? Walking or winning? One longtime talent evaluator who likes all three center fielders acknowledges, "You're going to win more championships with Torii."

Championships is a choice I'd take every day.

Long-time readers will know that I scoff at the notion of clubhouse chemistry. Maybe it’s because I don’t work for the punditocracy or some other toolhead organization.

[Just for the record, I feel compelled to point out that the A’s have reached the post season five of the last seven years. So perhaps reaching base and running up pitch counts have some merit, too.]

Snarkiness aside, I was floored that this flimsy bit of logic is really the best McNeal can come up with in support of Hunter. How do we know Hunter is a great clubhouse leader? The Twins have played in four of the last five Octobers. Oh, and his manager and some unnamed scout say he is. What more do you need?

And that’s one of the reasons why these “favorite toy” fluff pieces are ultimately silly. Unless you’re comparing one guy who’s obviously better than the rest (i.e., which center fielder would you rather have – Joe DiMaggio, Bob Dernier, or Chet Lemon?), it all comes down to your preference. And, as they say, there’s no accounting for taste.

But at the end of the day, you can’t just say, “I like Torii Hunter better than Jones or Ichiro, just because he’s a leader and stuff.” You’d have to crank that up to a 48 point font to fill a page.

The other reason these are silly – perhaps I’m just naïve, but I think the correct answer to the Ichiro, Jones, or Hunter question is really option (d): it depends.

As every pundit who’s milked a column out of a post-mortem of the 2007 Chicago Cubs have told you, you just can’t throw twenty-five guys together and expect to make a team out of them. [Although Hunter’s legendary leadership skills would help in that respect…]

My choice would depend on the make up of the rest of the roster. I lean toward Ichiro at about a sixty degree angle, because I like future Hall of Famers who get on base. But if I have a glaring need for a leadoff hitter, my lean becomes more of a topple.

If my lineup is such that my center fielder only has to be the sixth- or seventh-best hitter, then I might go with Hunter. How can anyone have a meaningful discussion of this sort of personnel decision in a vacuum?