Minnesota Twins 2008 Preview: Life Without Johan

2007...the year that sucked/was groovy (pick one)

It was a very disappointing season for the Minnesota Twins. After six straight winning seasons and a 96 win campaign in 2006, the Twins fell all the way off to 79-83. The Twins weren't particularly good either at the plate or on the mound. Young starters like Boof Bonser, Scott Baker, and Kevin Slowey did not succeed the way the Twins had hoped, while the offense featured way, WAY too much of Nick Punto, Jason Tyner, Jeff Cirillo, and Alexi Casilla. Over the winter the Twins traded away the best pitcher in the game for a rather unimpressive group of prospects, and traded a very solid young pitcher and their shortstop to acquire one of the games' best hitting prospects.

They can put it on the board, yes! no! maybe!

The Twins finished third to last in the AL in runs scored in 2007. Part of that is park illusion; the Metrodome actually played as an extreme pitchers park, and the Twins were last in the league in runs scored at home. Although they scored better on the road (4.83 runs per game as opposed to 4.04), the road average isn't all that great either; the league average runs per game was 4.90.

CF Carlos Gomez
C Joe Mauer
LF Delmon Young
1B Justin Morneau
RF Michael Cuddyer
DH Jason Kubel
2B Brendan Harris
3B Mike Lamb
SS Adam Everett

I hope that this is just some silly winter idea and not the lineup that the Twins actually plan on using this year. What's wrong, you ask? Let's start at the top. Gomez, acquired in the Santana trade, is not ready for a major league job, much less one as a leadoff hitter. He needs a year in triple A to polish a lot of skills, not the least being his ability to reach base. Young should hit lower in the order, allowing him to learn more about being a major league hitter with less pressure. Lamb and Harris aren't shiny, sexy, young, and cool, but they both are much more proficient at reaching base than Gomez and Young, at least right now. I'd try something like this:

2B Brendan Harris
3B Mike Lamb
C Joe Mauer
1B Justin Morneau
RF Michael Cuddyer
DH Jason Kubel
LF Delmon Young
CF cannon fodder/placeholder like Jason Priddy or Dennard Span. Or Corey Patterson
SS Adam Everett

That's actually not a bad lineup, although the last two spots would amount to little. It would put the best OBP guys at the top, followed by guys hitting 4-7 who could all drive them around the bases. Mauer just needs to add some power to be one of the best hitters in the game. Morneau should never have been an MVP, but he is a solid run producer.

Pitchers, or belly itchers?

Following the general trend, the Twins were second in the AL in home ERA, but below average on the road. Any team with Johan Santana in the starting rotation is going to finish above average in ERA no matter who the other starters are . Joe Nathan remained one of the best closers in the game.

SP Livan Hernandez
SP Scott Baker
SP Boof Bonser
SP Francisco Liriano
SP Kevin Slowey

CL Joe Nathan
RP Pat Neshek
RP Juan Rincon

Hernandez was signed as spring training opened essentially to eat up innings and allow Baker and Bonser to not have to be a staff ace at young ages. A lot was expected from Bonser last year, but he finished with a 5.10 ERA and seemed to get worse as the season went on. Nutty the Athletic Cup and his friend Scott Baker started badly but had a 3.44 ERA and 64/17 K/BB ratio after the All-Star break. A lot of attention will be focused on Liriano, who had a 2006 season that almost rivaled Santana's before needing Tommy John surgery. The Twins should be satisfied with a good 150 innings from him this year. Nathan has posted ERAs below 2.00 three years out of the past four. Neshek a terrific setup man, and the Twins have a lot of depth in the bullpen.

Witnesses for the defense

The Twins were slightly above average defensively in 2007. Their best defender, center fielder Torii Hunter, left as a free agent over the winter. If Gomez does take over in center, the Twins won't miss Hunter defensively; Gomez is fast, covers center very well, and has a very strong arm. Everett, obtained from the Astros, is a terrible hitter but an outstanding shortstop. Cuddyer is an underrated right fielder who had 19 baserunner kills (isn't that a way cooler name than assists?) last year.

Farm aid

The Twins don't have any star level talent in the system at this time. Gomez has a lot of potential but really needs more development time. Ben Revere is another speedy centerfielder who could develop, but he's years away. Pitcher Phillip Humber, picked up in the Santana trade, was a top prospect before having Tommy John surgery in 2006. He did not pitch as well last year as he had before the surgery and will have to take a big step forward to show that he has any future as more than a back of the rotation guy. Deolis Guerra also came from the Mets; he showed promise as an 18 year old in A ball in 2006 but has a long way to go before being able to contribute in the majors.

Watch out for that tree!

There really isn't anyone here that I see as having a real good chance of the wheels coming off of any time very soon. Nathan is the only regular over 30 and there is nothing in his record or his style of pitching that suggests that he won't continue to be very effective. There is always some chance that Mauer, a very large catcher, might come up with an injury that curtails his future, but I'd be willing to take my chances with him. The Twins wisely have him take a decent amount of his at bats as the designated hitter, saving wear and tear. I should have mentioned Hernandez as being a regular over 30 but (a) he's not anything more than a placeholder in the rotation for this team and (b) he's already defied the odds on being effective as long as he has, so who knows, he could keep doing this for ten more years.

I could make a hat, or a broach...

I actually like this team more than a lot of baseball writers do. Yes, they lost Santana and Hunter. But they still have a very good core lineup, a group of decent young pitchers, and a solid bullpen. Bonser and Baker could both step forward as two of the better pitchers in the division. Liriano is a wild card; if he gets back even close to where he was in 2006 the Twins could have a very tough rotation. Mauer and Morneau are already two of the division's best hitters; rapid improvement from Young and Kubel and a batting order that makes sense would make this team a threat.

Off-Center

The Sporting News’ Stan McNeal was looking for an easy way to kill 650 words last week, so he mailed in a column about which potential free agent you would want roaming center field for your team: Ichiro Suzuki, Andruw Jones, or Torii Hunter?

There’s nothing intrinsically wrong with this sort of thing. Like I said, it’s an easy way to fill column inches. And, as an added bonus, you can give some props to one of your favorites. What is wrong is when you have to stretch the bounds of logic to make your point.

McNeal’s fave out of this trio is Hunter. Some of his reasoning is a bit fuzzy, even for a rag like The Sporting News (such as McNeal’s preference for Torii even though Ichiro is halfway to a Hall of Fame career, or his assertion that Hunter’s athletic-but-31-year-old body figure to “make him an elite player for many years”). But this was the bit that made me laugh out loud:

What Hunter lacks in OBP, he makes up for in the clubhouse. Because I don't work for the A's or some other stathead organization, Hunter's leadership is my differentiating factor. This stat matters, too: The Twins have reached the postseason four of the past five years. Hunter's professionalism has had something to do with that.

"He's just got that thing that not very many people have. He's special," Twins manager Ron Gardenhire says.

So what do you prefer? Reaching base or reaching out to teammates? Running up pitch counts or running into walls? Walking or winning? One longtime talent evaluator who likes all three center fielders acknowledges, "You're going to win more championships with Torii."

Championships is a choice I'd take every day.

Long-time readers will know that I scoff at the notion of clubhouse chemistry. Maybe it’s because I don’t work for the punditocracy or some other toolhead organization.

[Just for the record, I feel compelled to point out that the A’s have reached the post season five of the last seven years. So perhaps reaching base and running up pitch counts have some merit, too.]

Snarkiness aside, I was floored that this flimsy bit of logic is really the best McNeal can come up with in support of Hunter. How do we know Hunter is a great clubhouse leader? The Twins have played in four of the last five Octobers. Oh, and his manager and some unnamed scout say he is. What more do you need?

And that’s one of the reasons why these “favorite toy” fluff pieces are ultimately silly. Unless you’re comparing one guy who’s obviously better than the rest (i.e., which center fielder would you rather have – Joe DiMaggio, Bob Dernier, or Chet Lemon?), it all comes down to your preference. And, as they say, there’s no accounting for taste.

But at the end of the day, you can’t just say, “I like Torii Hunter better than Jones or Ichiro, just because he’s a leader and stuff.” You’d have to crank that up to a 48 point font to fill a page.

The other reason these are silly – perhaps I’m just naïve, but I think the correct answer to the Ichiro, Jones, or Hunter question is really option (d): it depends.

As every pundit who’s milked a column out of a post-mortem of the 2007 Chicago Cubs have told you, you just can’t throw twenty-five guys together and expect to make a team out of them. [Although Hunter’s legendary leadership skills would help in that respect…]

My choice would depend on the make up of the rest of the roster. I lean toward Ichiro at about a sixty degree angle, because I like future Hall of Famers who get on base. But if I have a glaring need for a leadoff hitter, my lean becomes more of a topple.

If my lineup is such that my center fielder only has to be the sixth- or seventh-best hitter, then I might go with Hunter. How can anyone have a meaningful discussion of this sort of personnel decision in a vacuum?

Farewell, Sweet Bat-Girl

It is with heavy heart I report that Twins blogger Bat-Girl has decided to leave the blogosphere.

Lord knows that I'll miss her and Legovision. Bat-Girl was a joy to read, and I am sorry to see her go. Someday, I hope to be half as entertaining a writer as she is.

Bat-Girl, if you're reading this, please check in every once in a while. The world needs you!

Don't Let the Door Hit You...

If anybody out there is looking for a guy with a 6.93 ERA, call Terry Ryan immediately.

Opening Day Card Table Discussion

Back at our old site, Jim and I engaged in several Card Table Discussions via instant messaging. We just didn’t have the budget for a proper Round Table, you see…

Anyway, it had been a while since we had gotten together on line, so we thought we’d enjoy Opening Day while sitting in front of the computer and TV. Here’s a slightly edited transcript (for grammar and spelling) of our gab during the exciting Orioles-Twins match up from Monday night:

Bob: Anything interesting happen today? Besides both our teams getting smoked?

Jim: A few good games...Jays/Tigers. Phillies/Braves…Yankees/Rays was good for a while.

Bob: How about that Carl Pavano?

Jim: Still a bum. Not that a lot of guys looked better. Hell, the best pitching performance of the day was Gil Meche

Bob: 7.1 IP, 6 K, 1 earned...that doesn't stink. Makes me even more annoyed your girlfriend grabbed her in the fantasy draft...

Jim: Contreras, Kazmir, Webb, Zambrano, Patterson...some not-so-pretty starts. Bonderman pitched well, after the 1st inning, so did Halladay, and Harang. And Ben Sheets

Bob: I'm sure I'll hear it from Brewers Fan tomorrow morning.

Jim: Is that how you slide in Canada? (watching Justin Morneau)

Bob: It's a metric slide.

Jim: last year, baseball prospectus used the World Baseball Championship as a whipping boy for slow starts by Johan and other pitchers...so, with so many guys not sharp today, where will the blame go?

Bob: There was also the newly-implemented greenie ban, which many predicted would result in runners falling asleep on the bases. I don't suppose they can use that again. Sane people will chalk it up to just a random bad outing, as everyone is entitled to every once in a while. Unfortunately, the baseball punditocracy is anything but sane, and they'll need something to rag about.

Jim: Did you see that catch? What I love about it is that White looked like he was moving in slow motion the whole way. Including the dive.

Bob: Nice catch by Rondell. Good to see the old legs still have some life in 'em. I think we can add Felix Hernandez to the list of guys who had good starts today.

Jim: Yeah, I would say that was pretty good, for a 20-year old. Scott Williamson is warming up in the O's bullpen? Scott Williamson? Who's next, Eddie Watt?

Bob: Any port in a storm, I guess. Better hope that Mazzone magic rubs off quick. Perhaps Tippy Martinez is next?

Jim: Tim Stoddard.

Bob: Hoyt Wilhelm. Speaking of knuckleballs, I broke a few off today pitching BP to my sons and their friends. Nothing like fooling a couple nine-year-olds to boost my middle-aged confidence.

Jim: You were probably more effective than Jose Contreras.

Bob: It helped that we were using an older ball that the boys had scuffed up pretty good. I learned a lot from Rick Honeycutt...

Jim: ok, Whitey Ford.

Bob: Note to Paul Bako: let the umpire call the foul balls.

Jim: Exactly...don't just assume the call, finish the play. I thought that veteran catchers were supposed to know that.

Bob: Nice shot by Morneau. Looks like he's telling the second base ump, "I was safe, eh?!"

Jim: "I beg your pardon, eh? Would you consider that I was safe, if it's not too much trouble?"

Bob: Here comes Sam to bring in Williamson. Guess we can add Bedard to the list of guys who didn't have good days.

Jim: Done.

Bob: Great llamas of the Bahamas -- what's gotten into Hargrove? I see on Game Channel that he brought Putz to pitch the ninth. But the M's are up 4-0! It's not a save situation! You can't use your closer in a non-save situation! It's an unwritten rule!

Jim: That's right! That's why John Gibbons used Casey Jannsen, Scott Downs, and Justin Fraser in the bottom of the ninth in a tie game in Detroit today.

Bob: And he had B.J. Ryan all lined up for the tenth to nail down the victory. He knew what he was doing...

Jim: Because why use your best reliever to hold a tie, when by using your 2nd, 3rd, and 4th best you can eliminate the need for a save situation.

Bob: Why else have 12 pitchers if you can't use your fourth best reliever in a game situation?

Jim: You need that 12th pitcher so that you can carry a guy to pitch 60 games, 38 innings.

Bob: I think it's great the way ESPN uses a little graphic underneath the line score graphic to tell us which guy hit the home run we just saw leave the yard. Thanks, guys.

Jim: Well, in case you weren't paying attention

Bob: It's the end of an era -- I see on the transaction wire that both Ben Davis and Ron Villone were canned by the Yankees today. Hard to believe they still had jobs...

Jim: I thought that they were in camp as coaches. Or doing the catering.

Bob: There was a bit on Baseball Tonight last night about guys who had good years getting sent out to AAA. One thing the panel didn't mention was that these guys haven't been all that good recently. Cantu, Prior, Ordonez, Davies, McClung...

Jim: McClung has never had a good year. Davies? like he's exactly Tom Glavine?

Bob: But McClung was the Closer(TM). That means something, don't it? Davies was a Braves pitching prospect, which automatically meant that he was a hot property. You know, like Steve Avery and Horacio Ramirez.

Jim: And so many others...Bruce Chen...

Bob: Odalis Perez...John Rocker...Micah Bowie...

Jim: The list goes on. Kind of like it used to be with the Dodgers.

Bob: The ESPN guys are talking about Jackie Robinson's legacy. I'll leave to your imagination the mind-numbing inanity of Sutcliffe and Baker discussing the sociological implications of Robinson's career.

Jim: Did Mark Grace play any part in it?

Bob: No. But I'm sure Grace would have some hollow platitudes to mouth if he were in the booth. The play-by-play guy on ESPN just said that while John Parrish is 29, he's really 27 in "baseball terms" because he's missed most of the last two years with injuries. Does life really work like that?

Jim: Is he counting in dog years or something?

Bob: Maybe his arm has a little less wear and tear...but still...

Jim: But he's still 29!

Bob: Does that mean Kerry Wood is only 25?

Jim: Hell, at his rate, pretty soon he'll be 17.

Bob: Hey, it's Dennys "Sampler" Reyes. Good to see he's still got a gig. It's 2-2 in Houston, thanks to Lidge.

Jim: When I saw that the Pirates had tied the game, I knew without looking that Lidge was pitching. Oswalt is waiting for him in the clubhouse, with a bat

Bob: Closers are a superstitious and cowardly lot...And now I see Jason Bay has hit the go-ahead dinger in the top of the tenth. Oops.

Jim: Lidge must still be pitching.

Bob: No, it was Qualls. But it's a good thing Lidge doesn't pitch in New York, Boston, or Chicago. Fans and the media would be fixing to tar and feather him...

Jim: My mistake...I just automatically assume that any time the Astro bullpen screws up, it was Lidge.

Bob: Here's the kind of insight that you can only get from a former player...Sutcliffe just told a wacky story of how all the guys on Canada's WBC team last year enjoyed hockey. Who'd've thought it?

Jim: Canadians enjoying hockey? What's next, Brazilians enjoying soccer?

Bob: That led to a discussion of all the Canadians who had good careers in the Show. Fergie, Larry Walker...uhhhh....

Jim: Jeff Heath. Jason Bay is working on one

Bob: He's added to his legend tonight.

Jim: Matt Stairs!

Bob: Good ol' Matt Stairs. Former second baseman, you know.

Jim: Can you imagine Stairs playing second base today? I can imagine Stairs BEING second base, but not playing it.

Bob: I don't think I can imagine that much. Astros wrapped up their first loss of the year. I guess it's down to the Reds, Brewhas, and Pirates in the Central this year. Everyone else is on pace to lose 162 games.

Jim: oh, here's another surprise. The Twins broadcast crew is talking about how the plate ump is calling the outside corner strike some times, and not other times. The plate ump? Country Joe West

Bob: Why haven't they fired him yet? So what was your biggest surprise today? For me, I think it was all those good pitchers getting lit up.

Jim: It was a surprise to see so many of them struggle...cripes, it took Brandon Webb 40 pitches to get out of the first inning today. The Blue Jays stole two bases in the first today, against Pudge Rodriguez, no less...that's not usually their style. Otherwise, not really too much surprising...it's just a one day sample, so I can't draw any conclusions. Not that this will stop Dr. Phil, Sully, etc

Bob: I agree. There's no need to push the panic button yet, although there will be fans and media ready to start dumping players today.

Jim: 161 left, you know.

Bob: I think the important take-away from today is that baseball is back, and all is right with the world. No matter how lousy our teams looked this afternoon.

Jim: And on that note, we should bring this to an end.