Don't Quit Your Day Job

This is what happens when a franchise is both bad and unlucky. Bergesen, who already has had the misfortune of missing half of his rookie season after taking a line drive off of the shin, is now officially a member of the strange injuries Hall of Fame.

Baltimore Orioles 2008 Preview: Drab This Year, With Prettier Plumage To Follow

2007: The year that sucked/was groovy (pick one)

I suppose that team management had some sort of plan going into the 2007 season, and I'm sure that they thought it was a pretty good one. Whatever the plan was, it was more or less invisible to the rest of us, the team was about as well constructed as a Bizarro World interplanetary rocket, and the 69-93 season that resulted was less than optimal. Orioles GM Andy MacPhail engineered two major trades over the winter, receiving a potentially tremendous haul in the second one, and appears to have finally moved the franchise into the rebuilding direction it needs to go.

They can put it on the board, yes! no! maybe!

Playing in a home park that inflates offense by about 5%, the 2007 Orioles scored a below average 756 runs. Of the regulars, only Nick Markakis, Miguel Tejada, and Brian Roberts were above average contributers compared to other regulars at their positions. Tejada was traded to the Astros over the winter and Roberts could soon join him in the NL Central if the Cubs put together the right package. Here's a quick and easy guide to roster construction: if your team gives 434 at bats to Jay Payton, your team isn't going to win a lot of games.

2B Brian Roberts (for the moment, anyway)
3B Melvin Mora
RF Nick Markakis
CF Adam Jones
DH Aubrey Huff
LF Luke Scott
1B Kevin Millar (come on, Kevin Millar?)
C Ramon Hernandez
SS Luis Hernandez

Essentially, the lineup of the 2008 Orioles consists of two guys who are going to be really, really good (Markakis and Jones), one veteran who could be traded at any minute (Roberts), one veteran who they should deal as soon as possible for anything they can still get (Mora) and five guys who won't be part of the next good Orioles team. If Roberts stays around, the Orioles will probably score somewhere around 770 runs. If he departs, the best that the two good hitters left will be able to lift them to is around 740. That's not going to win anything.

Pitchers, or belly itchers?

Orioles hitters in 2007 were merely mediocre. Orioles pitching was just godawful. Eric Bedard pitched brilliantly for 182 innings, then got hurt, then got traded to Seattle. Jeremy Guthrie pitched surprisingly well after being a desperation addition to the rotation. Daniel Cabrera, expected to be the Drysdale to Bedard's Koufax, went 9-18 with a 5.55 ERA.

SP Jeremy Guthrie
SP Adam Loewen
SP Daniel Cabrera
SP Troy Patton
SP Garrett Olson

CL Dennis Sarfate
RP Chad Bradford
RP Jamie Walker

Looks like the staff of a 100 game loser to me. At least all of them are young, and have upsides; the days of Steve Trachsel, Victor Zambrano, and Jaret Wright are gone. None of them look like future #1 starter types, though. Bradford and Walker should be moved as soon as a contender expresses interest and offers a warm body as a replacement; bad teams like the Orioles need veteran setup men the way cats need drivers' licenses.

Witnesses for the defense

Defensively, the 2007 Orioles were mediocre at best. Markakis is an outstanding defender. No one else in the projected lineup can make that claim. There isn't much reason to expect the Orioles to be any better defensively in 2008.

Farm aid

Now for the good news. Help is on the way. The Orioles drafted well over the past couple of seasons and added a lot more to the farm system in the Tejada and Bedard trades. Adam Jones, who turns 23 in August, is ready to take over in center field right now. Some caution is advised: Jones is not completely polished defensively and has some work to do with strike zone judgement. That said, he should hit 25 or so homers this year and could well turn into a .310 hitter with 35+ homer power. Catcher Matt Wieters, drafted in the first round in 2007, could reach the majors by the end of this year. Within couple of years he may well be the best catcher in the game. Pitchers Chris Tillman, Chorye Spoone and Radhames Liz will be in the rotation by 2009, all three look like #2 or #3 starters. The number one guy could be lefthander Tony Butler, acquired along with Jones and Tillman in the Bedard trade, although he is at least two years from setting foot on the Camden Yards mound.

Watch out for that tree!

I don't see any candidates for a major falloff. Maybe Melvin Mora or Ramon Hernandez. Guys like Payton and Millar don't have an distance left to fall.

I can make a hat, or a broach...

About a week or so ago I told Bob that this was the worst franchise in MLB. The Bedard trade changed my mind...it's really the Pirates. The Orioles will be worth watching in 2008 only to see Markakis and Jones and will finish last in the AL East. And they'll be there again next year, too. Patience is a virtue, Orioles fan; your team will be back in the chase in 2011.

Trading Places

Hey -- some for-real-trade-news! And some...uhh...not-so-real trade news.

The Johan Santana saga finally reached its conclusion, and reaction seems mixed. Well, not about the trade...but about how screwed the Twins got in the deal.

There's a couple people questioning whether or not Twins' GM Bill Smith waited too long, got forced into a corner when neither the Yankees or the Red Sox started a bidding war, and had to settle for a lesser package of prospects.

And then there's the contingent who believes that the trade was made solely to make ten-year-olds cry.

I don't know much about the guys the Twins got from the Mets (Jim, any help here?). But it seems that these guys are still a year or two away from being ready for the Show, so we'll have to wait and see how smart Smith is.

Meanwhile, Erik Bedard is still an Oriole. Some people say that it's because Peter Angelos is a meddling jerk. But Andy MacPhail says that ain't so:

Asked if Angelos was responsible for nixing a deal, MacPhail responded, "No." He wouldn't elaborate further or provide details on why the talks appear to have hit a snag.

Not exactly a stirring defense of his boss. But a lot of the speculation I've read that Angelos is meddling in this deal seems to be based solely on the fact that he's been a meddling jerk in the past.

And maybe that's true. I dunno -- I'm no mind reader. For the sake of the Orioles franchise and its fans, I hope it's not true. Or, at the very least, if Angelos is nixing the deal he's got a real good reason for it.

A Bird in the Hand

A while ago, Jim mentioned the tedium of the ongoing Johan Santana saga. I will suggest that the endless speculation over where Erik Bedard will spend 2008 is rapidly approaching that level.

The latest bit of non-news from the AP says "Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail has been actively seeking to trade Bedard for prospects. He appears close to working out a deal with the Mariners, but insisted Monday that a trade was not necessarily imminent. "

In other words...nothing to report.

But that's the way it goes, as we slog through the last few weeks of winter. Training camps open in about two weeks, and I can hardly wait. Then maybe we'll have something to write about.

No One Can Succeed Like Doctor Roberts

I've been pretty quiet about the Cubs since our return, and for good reason. There's just not a lot going on with my heroes lately.

Sure, there's Fukudome-mania about to erupt. But outside some obvious jokes about Ron Santo mispronouncing his name (and incurring an FCC fine or two), all I can say is that I think he'll be an improvement over Jacques Jones and Cliff Floyd. And if that's not damning with faint praise, I don't know what is.

Other than that, the biggest story swirling around Clark and Addison is whether or not the long-rumored deal for Baltimore second baseman Brian Roberts will go down or not. Dr. Phil reported last week that the deal was imminent, but he frets that the price might be just too darned high -- Sean Marshall, Sean Gallagher, and Ronny Cedeno.

Is that really a high price? Cedeno's OK, but his career seems to be heading into a super-sub arc (if he's lucky). Marshall and Gallagher have had their moments, and I project them to be mid-rotation starters. There's value in that, but is it worth putting the kibosh on getting Roberts?

There's been some scuttlebutt from Orioles Fan on the message boards at chicagosports.com that Roberts is over-rated (along with the usual hysterical rantings from Cub Fan ready to string up Hendry for daring to think of trading a product of the farm system -- hasn't the guy learned anything from Brock-for-Broglio???). Besides perhaps being over-rated, there is the unpleasant fact that after the Mitchell Report was release, Roberts admitted to doping. Once. And never again.

On the one hand, at least Roberts had the decency to 'fess up. He claims he hasn't used since that first time because it was a "terrible decision." Since he hasn't bombed any tests, I can only assume he's telling the truth.

And on the other hand, that admission allows us the luxury of giving him a wacky nickname. One of the Goatriders dropped "The Injector" on him, which I do like. However, as a fan of the Beatles, I'm inclined to stick with "Doctor R0berts," for his self-medicating ways.

Setting aside the doping issue for now, will Roberts be a plus for the Cubs? To answer that question, I provide two stat lines from 2007:

Doctor Roberts: .377 OBP, 269 times on base, 448 outs
Chicago Cubs Lead-off Hitters (mostly Soriano): .341 OBP, 257 times on base, 507 outs

So...yeah...I think sticking Roberts at the top of the lineup just might be a good thing.

I think a Roberts for Marshall/Gallagher/Cedeno deal would be good for my boys, and Hendry should pull the trigger on it now if he can. However, I have my doubts that this trade will ever see the light of day. Partly because of other rumors floating out there that the Mariners are willing to make a bigger deal to get both Doctor Roberts and Erik Bedard. But mostly because Dr. Phil claims that "the deal is almost certainly going to happen."

In my experience, the only person who has been more wrong than Dr. Phil making trade prediction was me playing roulette at my company's last casino night (meanwhile, my Reason for Living was putting her chips on the square root of pi and 83 Plaid and winning every time -- but did she share her winnings with me? hell, no!).

This is one situation I wouldn't mind being wrong (and giving Dr. Phil props for being right). Trading young pitching is never a pleasant experience, but Marshall and Gallagher are already on the bubble of the Major League roster as it is. If we can score a proper lead-off hitter for them before we lose them as minor-league free agents, I say go for it.

Guess Who’s Smart Again?

Set the Way-Back Machine for 2 October 2006. Here’s what Dr. Phil had to say the day Andy MacPhail resigned his gig as Cubs team president:

A club president impacts an organization two ways – by setting agendas and by hiring the personnel to carry them out.

[Cubs interim President John] McDonough is inheriting his biggest hire, as he does not appear inclined to abandon general manager Jim Hendry…That leaves the agenda, and McDonough again appears to be holding the current course – fix everything overnight, win tomorrow, if not sooner…

McDonough could be the person [to lead the team to the World Series]. But on Sunday, I didn’t hear him say anything MacPhail hasn’t said for the last twelve years.

And here’s Dr. Phil today, talking about MacPhail taking on the president’s job for the Baltimore Orioles:

You can argue that MacPhail—or MacFail, in the vernacular of Murphy's Bleachers—didn't fight hard enough for his budget, believing you can win without squeezing the profit margin. His resignation last September led to general manager Jim Hendry having access to new depths of the company vault.

But MacPhail kept both his bosses and his front-office staff happy, which is never happy. If Mark Prior and Kerry Wood had been healthy, he could have stuck around Wrigley Field forever—or at least until he succeeded Bud Selig as commissioner…

Instead of having hands-on control of the Cubs, he hired guys like Ed Lynch and Hendry to do the dirty work. But it was MacPhail who made the biggest decisions—the Sammy Sosa decisions, in particular—and set the organizational philosophy. It's amazing that his emphasis of player development and scouting didn't pay more dividends.

MacPhail knew what to do. It just didn't work out.

To sum up – Dr. Phil chided McDonough in October for holding the “win now” agenda that MacPhail set (the “current course,” as he puts it).

Today, Dr Phil is “amazed” that MacPhail’s “organizational philosophy” (the one about “fixing everything overnight”) “just didn’t work out.”

The lesson to be learned: players, managers, executives are idiots when they’re with the Cubs. As soon as they leave the team, they get smart again.

Getting Ahead of Ourselves

Dr. Phil trips all over himself to welcome back an old favorite:

Look for Sosa to turn up his production in June as he closes in on an unexpected trip to the All-Star Game. It would be his first since 2004 and eighth overall and might let us all enjoy—one more time—Sammy's biggest game of the season: The home run contest.

Sosa entered Texas' Monday night game at Oakland hitting .259. He was leading the Rangers with 37 RBIs, which put him on pace to produce 32 homers and 120 RBIs, his most in a season since 2001. If he can keep it up, he's a lock for the comeback player of the year award and most likely a multiyear contract, not bad for a guy who didn't want to play a year ago.

Sosa is certainly bashing the ball -- his .503 slugging average is good for 18th in the AL (35th overall), quite respectable for a guy who sat out a year.

But the scounts the Beane haters like to refer to say that Sosa is crushing mistakes, and looking bad on quality pitches.

I don't know it they're right. But I look at Sosa's .317 OBP and can't help but think that he's not quite the elite batter Dr. Phil seems to think, no matter how gaudy the home run and RBIs totals project to.

Besides, the last time Dr. Phil singled out an ex-Cub as being back on track after a good May, he was predicting stardom for this guy. So forgive me if I'm a little skeptical of the Doctor's prognosis...

Opening Day Card Table Discussion

Back at our old site, Jim and I engaged in several Card Table Discussions via instant messaging. We just didn’t have the budget for a proper Round Table, you see…

Anyway, it had been a while since we had gotten together on line, so we thought we’d enjoy Opening Day while sitting in front of the computer and TV. Here’s a slightly edited transcript (for grammar and spelling) of our gab during the exciting Orioles-Twins match up from Monday night:

Bob: Anything interesting happen today? Besides both our teams getting smoked?

Jim: A few good games...Jays/Tigers. Phillies/Braves…Yankees/Rays was good for a while.

Bob: How about that Carl Pavano?

Jim: Still a bum. Not that a lot of guys looked better. Hell, the best pitching performance of the day was Gil Meche

Bob: 7.1 IP, 6 K, 1 earned...that doesn't stink. Makes me even more annoyed your girlfriend grabbed her in the fantasy draft...

Jim: Contreras, Kazmir, Webb, Zambrano, Patterson...some not-so-pretty starts. Bonderman pitched well, after the 1st inning, so did Halladay, and Harang. And Ben Sheets

Bob: I'm sure I'll hear it from Brewers Fan tomorrow morning.

Jim: Is that how you slide in Canada? (watching Justin Morneau)

Bob: It's a metric slide.

Jim: last year, baseball prospectus used the World Baseball Championship as a whipping boy for slow starts by Johan and other pitchers...so, with so many guys not sharp today, where will the blame go?

Bob: There was also the newly-implemented greenie ban, which many predicted would result in runners falling asleep on the bases. I don't suppose they can use that again. Sane people will chalk it up to just a random bad outing, as everyone is entitled to every once in a while. Unfortunately, the baseball punditocracy is anything but sane, and they'll need something to rag about.

Jim: Did you see that catch? What I love about it is that White looked like he was moving in slow motion the whole way. Including the dive.

Bob: Nice catch by Rondell. Good to see the old legs still have some life in 'em. I think we can add Felix Hernandez to the list of guys who had good starts today.

Jim: Yeah, I would say that was pretty good, for a 20-year old. Scott Williamson is warming up in the O's bullpen? Scott Williamson? Who's next, Eddie Watt?

Bob: Any port in a storm, I guess. Better hope that Mazzone magic rubs off quick. Perhaps Tippy Martinez is next?

Jim: Tim Stoddard.

Bob: Hoyt Wilhelm. Speaking of knuckleballs, I broke a few off today pitching BP to my sons and their friends. Nothing like fooling a couple nine-year-olds to boost my middle-aged confidence.

Jim: You were probably more effective than Jose Contreras.

Bob: It helped that we were using an older ball that the boys had scuffed up pretty good. I learned a lot from Rick Honeycutt...

Jim: ok, Whitey Ford.

Bob: Note to Paul Bako: let the umpire call the foul balls.

Jim: Exactly...don't just assume the call, finish the play. I thought that veteran catchers were supposed to know that.

Bob: Nice shot by Morneau. Looks like he's telling the second base ump, "I was safe, eh?!"

Jim: "I beg your pardon, eh? Would you consider that I was safe, if it's not too much trouble?"

Bob: Here comes Sam to bring in Williamson. Guess we can add Bedard to the list of guys who didn't have good days.

Jim: Done.

Bob: Great llamas of the Bahamas -- what's gotten into Hargrove? I see on Game Channel that he brought Putz to pitch the ninth. But the M's are up 4-0! It's not a save situation! You can't use your closer in a non-save situation! It's an unwritten rule!

Jim: That's right! That's why John Gibbons used Casey Jannsen, Scott Downs, and Justin Fraser in the bottom of the ninth in a tie game in Detroit today.

Bob: And he had B.J. Ryan all lined up for the tenth to nail down the victory. He knew what he was doing...

Jim: Because why use your best reliever to hold a tie, when by using your 2nd, 3rd, and 4th best you can eliminate the need for a save situation.

Bob: Why else have 12 pitchers if you can't use your fourth best reliever in a game situation?

Jim: You need that 12th pitcher so that you can carry a guy to pitch 60 games, 38 innings.

Bob: I think it's great the way ESPN uses a little graphic underneath the line score graphic to tell us which guy hit the home run we just saw leave the yard. Thanks, guys.

Jim: Well, in case you weren't paying attention

Bob: It's the end of an era -- I see on the transaction wire that both Ben Davis and Ron Villone were canned by the Yankees today. Hard to believe they still had jobs...

Jim: I thought that they were in camp as coaches. Or doing the catering.

Bob: There was a bit on Baseball Tonight last night about guys who had good years getting sent out to AAA. One thing the panel didn't mention was that these guys haven't been all that good recently. Cantu, Prior, Ordonez, Davies, McClung...

Jim: McClung has never had a good year. Davies? like he's exactly Tom Glavine?

Bob: But McClung was the Closer(TM). That means something, don't it? Davies was a Braves pitching prospect, which automatically meant that he was a hot property. You know, like Steve Avery and Horacio Ramirez.

Jim: And so many others...Bruce Chen...

Bob: Odalis Perez...John Rocker...Micah Bowie...

Jim: The list goes on. Kind of like it used to be with the Dodgers.

Bob: The ESPN guys are talking about Jackie Robinson's legacy. I'll leave to your imagination the mind-numbing inanity of Sutcliffe and Baker discussing the sociological implications of Robinson's career.

Jim: Did Mark Grace play any part in it?

Bob: No. But I'm sure Grace would have some hollow platitudes to mouth if he were in the booth. The play-by-play guy on ESPN just said that while John Parrish is 29, he's really 27 in "baseball terms" because he's missed most of the last two years with injuries. Does life really work like that?

Jim: Is he counting in dog years or something?

Bob: Maybe his arm has a little less wear and tear...but still...

Jim: But he's still 29!

Bob: Does that mean Kerry Wood is only 25?

Jim: Hell, at his rate, pretty soon he'll be 17.

Bob: Hey, it's Dennys "Sampler" Reyes. Good to see he's still got a gig. It's 2-2 in Houston, thanks to Lidge.

Jim: When I saw that the Pirates had tied the game, I knew without looking that Lidge was pitching. Oswalt is waiting for him in the clubhouse, with a bat

Bob: Closers are a superstitious and cowardly lot...And now I see Jason Bay has hit the go-ahead dinger in the top of the tenth. Oops.

Jim: Lidge must still be pitching.

Bob: No, it was Qualls. But it's a good thing Lidge doesn't pitch in New York, Boston, or Chicago. Fans and the media would be fixing to tar and feather him...

Jim: My mistake...I just automatically assume that any time the Astro bullpen screws up, it was Lidge.

Bob: Here's the kind of insight that you can only get from a former player...Sutcliffe just told a wacky story of how all the guys on Canada's WBC team last year enjoyed hockey. Who'd've thought it?

Jim: Canadians enjoying hockey? What's next, Brazilians enjoying soccer?

Bob: That led to a discussion of all the Canadians who had good careers in the Show. Fergie, Larry Walker...uhhhh....

Jim: Jeff Heath. Jason Bay is working on one

Bob: He's added to his legend tonight.

Jim: Matt Stairs!

Bob: Good ol' Matt Stairs. Former second baseman, you know.

Jim: Can you imagine Stairs playing second base today? I can imagine Stairs BEING second base, but not playing it.

Bob: I don't think I can imagine that much. Astros wrapped up their first loss of the year. I guess it's down to the Reds, Brewhas, and Pirates in the Central this year. Everyone else is on pace to lose 162 games.

Jim: oh, here's another surprise. The Twins broadcast crew is talking about how the plate ump is calling the outside corner strike some times, and not other times. The plate ump? Country Joe West

Bob: Why haven't they fired him yet? So what was your biggest surprise today? For me, I think it was all those good pitchers getting lit up.

Jim: It was a surprise to see so many of them struggle...cripes, it took Brandon Webb 40 pitches to get out of the first inning today. The Blue Jays stole two bases in the first today, against Pudge Rodriguez, no less...that's not usually their style. Otherwise, not really too much surprising...it's just a one day sample, so I can't draw any conclusions. Not that this will stop Dr. Phil, Sully, etc

Bob: I agree. There's no need to push the panic button yet, although there will be fans and media ready to start dumping players today.

Jim: 161 left, you know.

Bob: I think the important take-away from today is that baseball is back, and all is right with the world. No matter how lousy our teams looked this afternoon.

Jim: And on that note, we should bring this to an end.