Stay Classy, Reds Announcers

As reported over at Hire Jim Essian...

Frank Thomas Memorial Link Dump

** There's nothing better than beating the livin' bejeezus out of the Mets. Well, almost nothing. I admit that beatin' the living bejeezus out of the Cardinals comes first.

But what makes beatin' the livin' bejeezus out of the Mets even more special is recapping the series through You Tube videos.

** Hey -- Rob Neyer's got a new book out. I might have to give it a look-see.

** Thank you to Goat Rider Kyle for quantifying "Scrappiness." Hey, it makes as much sense as any of Dr. Phil's alleged analysis.

** Mike Downey tells us all about scrappy white guy Reed Johnson. He's a "31-year-old who hustles like Pete Rose and hero-worships Ty Cobb."

As my bilingual friends might say, Donde los yikes! Let's hope he stays away from the casinos. And doesn't beat up handicapped fans in the stands.

** This just about sums up Brewer Fans' reaction to Ben Sheets' latest.

** We've got a new addition to the links: Where Have You Gone, Andy van Slyke? Show a Pirate Fan some love, would ya?

** I was going to point out that Corey Patterson is still not having a good season, but Pat (from the aforemention WHYGAVS blog) beat me to it.

** The week's most shocking news, of course, was the Blue Jays sudden dumping of Frank Thomas. Reaction ranged from mocking the Jays for ditching their best hitting just because he had a bad two weeks and praising the Jays for getting rid of selfish, mean, no-good Thomas (both encapsulated here by FJM's Junior). Mike Downey wonders why Thomas is waiting on the unemployment line with Barry, Sammy, and Roger.

I can't reckon why the Blue Jays pulled the plug like that. The most obvious answer is economics -- after a certain number of PA's, Thomas' option for '09 kicks in. But eating the rest of this year's contract seems to be an odd way of getting out from under that option.

Thomas is on the downslope of his career, but there's nothing that makes me think he'd be a waste this year. I think some enterprising AL team needing a cheap DH would be more than happy to pay Thomas the Major League minimum for the rest of the year...

** In honor of Frank Thomas, I continue my award-winning Rutles retrospective. This song is from the Rutles' second film (the one in color that wasn't as good as the black-and-white one). Enjoy!

Ball Hawks

The guys at chicagosports.com put up some audio of Reds' broadcaster Marty Brennaman blasting Cub Fans because a bunch of idiots in the bleachers threw balls on the field after a Reds homer the other night.

Just a few thoughts on that...

** Marty's right -- throwing the ball back is lame. It was amusing the first time someone did it. No, wait...that's a lie. It was never amusing. Cub Fan, I implore you -- stop. Just stop.

** Marty goes on to say that there were "fifteen or eighteen" balls on the field, and elaborates that that is "so typical" of Cub Fan.

Eighteen idiots threw balls on the field. More than 39,000 other people (some of them idiots, some not) repressed the urge to hurl anything out of the stands. Is eighteen a large enough sample in this group to call it "typical" of the group?

** And just for good measure, Marty adds that people throwing baseballs on the field after home runs are one of the reasons why he roots against the Cubs. And then caps it all off by saying that you know there's just no way the Cubs will win the division this year because they're the Cubs, and will find a way to mess it up.

Is this part of the pass that one of the Chicago teams keeps getting? Just curious...

You've Been Warned

An interesting little tid-bit buried in Jayson Stark's latest column:

Bet you didn't even know there is a spring training crisis, right? Well, there isn't yet. But something happened this week that's about to unleash one.

That development was the finalization of the Reds' financing deal with Goodyear, Ariz., making their 2010 move to Arizona official. So why is that a crisis? Well, it's bad enough that one of the best sites in Florida (Sarasota) will be teamless. But it's a crisis because when the Reds leave, it's going to create an odd number of teams (15 apiece) in each state.

The big ramification of that mess is that at least one team will either have to be off, or scheduled for a split-squad game, every day of spring training. That's not an issue early in the spring. But by the last week of the spring, nobody wants to play a split-squad game. And if there is one, there will be so many minor leaguers playing in it, we bet some ticket-buyers will want their money back.

The Reds' exit also worsens the already-arduous travel issue in Florida, where teams are much more spread out than they are in Arizona. And you'd be surprised how many baseball people are ticked off by all of this.

Some of that unhappiness is being aimed at the government officials in Florida who don't even seem to care about all the tourist dollars they're chasing away. But some folks in baseball are also asking this question:

How could the commissioner's office sit back and let this happen? Wasn't this an issue worthy of MLB's intervention? Couldn't the commissioner's discretionary fund have ridden to the rescue when the Reds and Sarasota couldn't agree on how to fund necessary improvements to the complex?

"My understanding is, that's exactly what it was intended for," said an official of one team that trains in Florida. "They don't like to tell us what that fund is used for. But that's what it was supposed to be used for."

You'll be reading lots of stories about this "crisis" in 2010. We just wanted to be the first column on your block to alert you to the impending panic attack.

At the risk of sounding cynical, here's my two cents: Why didn't Baron Budhausen use his discretionary fund to "rescue" the Sarasota training site? Because if a MLB team is getting government financing (say, from Goodyear AZ), why in God's name would he want to spend MLB money?

That's how Budhausen has rolled in every other new facility debate that's crossed his desk. Why should his attitude be any different for a spring training stadium?

Patterson Watch

I touched on Dusty Baker's decision to drop Corey Patterson in the leadoff spot on Opening Day a few days ago. I offered the opinion that Baker could be considered coo-coo for Cocoa Puffs for using Patterson in a role for which he has displayed no aptitude.

Over the last week, I tracked the Reds' box scores to see if Baker continued that trend. And he has. Patterson has his leadoff in three other games. So far this young season, Patterson is five-for-nineteen as a leadoff hitter (with one walk).

Four of his five hits are for extra bases (two doubles and two dingers). That's good.

His OBP so far is .273. That's...uhhh...not good.

The Reds looked good this week, so Patterson's shortcomings may be glossed over slightly. And it's early, small sample size, blah blah blah.

But still. Corey doesn't get on base enough to be an effective leadoff man. If Baker keeps running him out there everyday (against righties, that is -- it looks like Freel takes over against southpaws), the Reds will be hurting sooner or later.

And sooner or later, Jay Bruce will force his way onto the team. Even Sarge knows it:

"Where is that young kid who looked so good in spring training in center field, and why isn't he here?" — Gary Matthews Sr., former major-league outfielder, friend of Baker and Phillies broadcaster, asking about Jay Bruce.

(Hat tip to Chad at Redlegs Nation for pointing that one out.)

The Definition of Insanity

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

Benjamin Franklin

Perusing the box scores this morning, I saw this on the top of the Reds' lineup from yesterday:

Patterson cf 4 0 0 0

And here I thought that Dusty had learned something from his time in Chicago...

Baker should know better than this. He tried the Corey-as-leadoff-hitter when he ran the Cubs. It didn't work then, and after one game it's not working now.

Dandy Don Baylor was the genius who first developed the concept of Patterson the Leadoff Hitter. Baylor's reasoning -- Corey's fast, and should be able to beat out lots of bunts for hits.

Completely absent from Baylor's reasoning -- does Corey know how to bunt for hits? Or get on base, for that matter?

Patterson had spent his amateur and minor-league career hitting in the middle of the lineup, where he put up some decent power numbers, but showed little inclination for ball four (the pitch, not the book). And, as you can imagine, a guy hitting in the middle of the lineup is only rarely called upon to beat out a drag bunt for a hit.

No matter -- Baylor proclaimed that Patterson's speed made him a great candidate for leadoff man, despite the fact that he didn't have the skill set to do the job. When Baker came in '03, he batted Patterson mostly third or sixth. Is it a coincidence that Patterson was having a helluva season before he ripped his knee to hell?

With Patterson healthy in 2004, Baker was committed to batting him at the top of the lineup. By then, we had D-Lee and A-Ram, so maybe we didn't need Patterson hitting in the middle of the lineup. But check out Patterson's 2004 splits:

Batting #1: 245 AB, .261/.317/.486
Batting #2: 196 AB, .260/.310/.403
Batting #7: 116 AB, .319/.389/.509
Leading off an inning: 166 AB, .253/.283/.422

I challenge even the most die-hard Moneyball haters out there to look at that stat breakdown and tell me with a straight face that this is a guy that you'd want to have leading off the game for your team.

It was during the 2004 season that the media starting ragging on Patterson for being a bad person and a bad ballplayer. It wasn't long before Cub Fan started believing what was in the paper, and by the end of the year it was pretty much a foregone conclusion that Patterson wouldn't be sticking around.

Was it Patterson's fault? There's been some talk that Patterson is "uncoachable," so it's conceivable that he bears some culpability for his career path.

But I put more of the responsibility on Cubs management. They tried to shoe-horn Patterson into a role (top of the lineup guy) that he was patently unprepared to handle. And then they expressed surprise that he couldn't handle it.

A better option would have been to stick him lower in the lineup and let him develop. The Orioles did that, and he put up decent numbers -- not good enough to make anyone forget Willie Mays, but good enough for Dr. Phil to start whining about how stupid the Cubs were for letting him go.

This year, Patterson and Baker and together again. And Baker still is laboring under the impression that Patterson can hit leadoff. Under Dr. Franklin's definition, one could consider Baker insane.

The Circle of Life

Some folks are already grumbling about the Reds' demotion of Jay Bruce, reportedly so Corey Patterson can play center field. Damn Baker's love of Proven Veterans(TM), they grumble.

Gosh, it wasn't that long ago that people were grumbling that ol' Dusty wouldn't give Corey a real shot at playing center field in Chicago, because he loves him some Proven Veterans(TM).

And the circle of life continues to turn...it's like a Disney movie, isn't it?

Cincinnati Reds 2008 Preview: Building a New Machine?

2007...the year that sucked/was groovy (pick one)

While the 2007 season was not exactly groovy for the Cincinnati Reds and their fans (the Reds finished 72-90, 13 games out), it was at least an interesting one. There was the ongoing story of Josh Hamilton's recovery and comeback, the insane accusation by a loudmouthed local radio host that their best player played like he was drunk on the field, Ken Griffey Jr. playing his most complete schedule since 2000, one of the scariest on-field collisions in recent memory, the midseason replacement of the manager, and more. Amidst all of the drama there were some real steps forward taken as some outstanding young talent debuted or moved very close to the major league level.

They can put it on the board, yes! no! maybe!

They play their home games in a bandbox, so the Reds looked a bit better at the plate in 2007 than they actually were. They finished fourth in runs scored at home but only seventh in road games and seventh overall. Adam Dunn takes a lot of crap for what he's not (a graceful outfielder who hits .300) while what he does do (hit 40 homers and draws 100 walks) gets ignored. Griffey and second baseman Brandon Phillips each reached the 30 homer mark. Third baseman Edwin Encarnacion returned from a demotion to triple A to hit .337/.383/.553 in August and September, raising hopes that he's finally turned a corner in his career.

2B Brandon Phillips
1B Joey Votto
RF Ken Griffey Jr.
3B Edwin Encarnacion
LF Adam Dunn
CF Jay Bruce
SS Alex Gonzalez
C David Ross/Javier Valentine

An impressive group. Phillips isn't really a leadoff hitter but neither is anyone else in the lineup, so he goes there by default. He did score 107 runs in 2007 with his combination of speed and power. Votto is an outstanding prospect who hit .321/.360/.548 in September. Bruce is the leading Rookie of the Year candidate in the NL; both Baseball Prospectus and prospect maven John Sickles rate him as the number one prospect in baseball. Given good health this could be an 850+ run team.

Pitchers, or belly itchers?

Despite the continued development of Aaron Harang into one of the NL's best starters, the pitching staff was pretty bad in 2007, allowing the second most runs in the league. Playing in the Great American Ball Park didn't help, but the Reds also allowed 5.11 runs per game on the road.

SP Aaron Harang
SP Bronson Arroyo
SP Matt Beslisle
SP Josh Fogg
SP Jeremy Affelt

CL Francisco Cordero
RP David Weathers
RP Bill Bray

Harang is one of the league's elite starters. Arroyo is a dependable innings eater and a decent number two. Forget the other three listed starters; they're placeholders who may not even make it out of spring training. Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, and Edinson Volquez will have those spots by midseason at the latest. All three are outstanding prospects and the odds are that at least one of the three will turn out to be very, very good. Adding Cordero bumps Stormy Weathers back to setup man, improving the bullpen all around. Look for some help in the pen from Jon Coutlangus; he's no closer prospect or anything, I just wanted to type the word "Coutlangus."

Witnesses for the defense

On the one hand, the 2007 Reds made few errors. On the other, they were among the worst in the NL at turning balls in play into outs. It's unclear if any improvement can be expected in 2008. Bruce is capable of handling center but isn't expected to transform into Andruw Jones. Dunn really is a bad left fielder. A full season from Gonzalez at short would help. Encarnacion has made a few strides at third at might at least battle the position to a draw.

Farm aid

A bumper crop. Votto and Bruce should be in the Opening Day lineup. At least one of the group of Bailey, Cueto, and Volquez will probably break camp in the rotation with the rest following promptly. None of these guys are middle of the road prospects; each has the ability to be real stars at the major league level. That's all there is at the moment, the rest of the best prospects are still at the lower levels.

Watch out for that tree!

Call this spot the annual Griffey Jr. watch. As much as we love him, we have to realize that he's 38, hasn't played a full season without injuries since Monica Lewinsky was a tawdry news item, and can't and shouldn't play center field any more. I'd write that Mike Stanton might break down any moment at age 41 except that he already has. Scott Hatteberg is 38; Votto's arrival makes Hatteberg's new position "pinch hitter."

I can make a hat, or a broach...

The Reds are one of the most interesting teams I've written about this spring. They look at least solid at every position, and five members of the lineup have the ability to be all stars. They have a strong number one starter and a good closer. If the young pitchers break through quickly this is the team in the NL most likely to take a huge leap forward. The Brewers and Cubs are good clubs but neither one is anything like the 1998 Yankees. The Reds could spend the year in development, but I can also see them jumping over the rest of the division to capture a surprise title.

Narrative Dies Hard

A few days ago, I examined how the scripts explaining why the Giants have been genetically incapable of developing young talent swiftly moved from Dusty Baker hates young players to Brian Sabean knew the team had to Win Now™ while Barry Bonds was still around.


In that bit, I marvelled at the fact that the new script served to (at least partially) absolve Sabean, current Dodger GM (and former Giant assistant GM) Ned Coletti, and the rest of the front office crew from any culpability in the team's player development shortfalls. Even more puzzling to me was that, even while admitting that the Giants front office was intentionally pursuing a strategy of frittering away draft picks and signing Proven Veterans™, no one cut Baker any slack. He was still the ogre in this fairy tale, no matter what Sabean's strategy was.


As if in answer the my unspoken prayers, Yahoo's Jeff Passan offers up this observation on Baker, as Reds camp opens:

“I know what I’ve got to do,” Baker said Thursday, and while his .527 career winning percentage inspires confidence, his track record with young players is spotty enough to cause concern.

In his 10 seasons with the Giants, Baker did not develop a single everyday player. The closest was Rich Aurilia. Three starting pitchers from the Giants’ organization stuck: Kirk Rueter, Russ Ortiz and Shawn Estes.

With the Cubs, Baker oversaw the destruction of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood’s careers. He trotted them out for 130-pitch starts. Baker isn’t big into statistics, so he probably wasn’t aware that comprehensive studies on pitch counts show 130 is a young pitcher’s equivalent to a national threat level of red.

Still, Baker met the suggestion that he might give Bruce or Cueto or even Votto more time at Triple-A with some derision.

“Who says they need to be eased in?” Baker said. “I wasn’t eased in. Junior wasn’t eased in. A whole bunch of guys weren’t eased in. A lot of it has to do with need.”

Funny how Passan disappeared that Win Now™ script. And bonus points for his unabashed two-fer: trotting out the Dusty hates using young players and the Dusty abuses young players scripts in back-to-back grafs.

But so it goes with your baseball media today. They have their favored scripts and narratives. And if they are hard to reconcile with logic and history, then logic and history must be wrong.

Maybe the Last Time -- I Don't Know

File this one under "There's No Crying in Baseball:"

If Cincinnati Reds slugger Ken Griffey Jr. has his way, he won't be involved in another double switch.

Griffey was replaced on defense during a double switch in the eighth inning of Tuesday's 6-5 win over the Chicago Cubs. Griffey, who has won 10 Gold Gloves, was surprised by Reds interim manager Pete Mackanin's decision.

"It was the first [time in my career] and it will be the last," he said before Wednesday's game against the Cubs.

Boo hoo -- you had me, then you lost me...

Red Streak

I suppose it wasn't really a surprise that the Reds fired Jerry Narron last week. After all, the Reds are the worst team in the National League, and the front office has to do something to prove to the fans they're serious about winning.

Heading into the season, I reckoned the Reds would be about the same as they were last year -- a team that would hit enough to keep them on the periphery of the division race, but not pitch enough to make them serious contenders. As it turned out, I underestimated the amount they would not pitch.

The Reds are in the lower third of the league in ERA, batting average against, on-base percentage against, slugging percentage against, OPS against (not surprisingly), total bases allowed, and runs allowed. Part of that is due to park effects, since they're a little better when looking at their road stats. But not a lot better (middle of the pack for most of those categories).

Oh, and the bullpen has blown thirteen saves. I think we can agree that's not good.

It appears that Narron's biggest mistake this year was being the manager the same time Bronson Arroyo had a bad year. Aaron Harang has been great again this year, and after last year most of us figured a Harang/Arroyo combo would give the Reds two good pitchers at the front of their rotation. We figured half right, I guess.

Arroyo's scuffling made it harder to patch over the holes in the rest of the rotation. Which has, to be frank, been brutal. It's been so bad the Reds brought in the dessicated remains of Eric Milton, which ended just as well as could be expected. Milton is now on the DL, where he won't be able to do as much damage.

Homer Bailey has a chance to be real good, but he's going to take his lumps. They've brought up a few other guys, like Bobby Livingston and Mike Gosling, who could be interesting, but it's too soon to tell. I don't know enough about their farm system to tell how good the pitching is. But there didn't seem to be any immediate help available on the Louisville and Chattanooga rosters.

So it looks like Pete Mackanin or whoever takes over as the permanent manager will have his hands full for the immediate future. Arroyo won his game tonight, and looked better than he has in a long time, so maybe things will get better. "Better" being a relative term, of course...

They Write Letters

A recent survey found that most white folks don’t think the negative perception of Barry Bonds has anything to do with race. On the other hand, most of our African-American brethren believe the opposite.

The subjects of Barry Bonds and race are prime fodder for the boneheads on sports talk radio and indignant letter writers. The eds at the Tribune Tower do not disappoint, selecting this letter from Chicago’s William P. Gottschalk for publication:

Allegations…that aversion to Barry Bonds and disinterest in, and/or disgust with, his likely successful assault on Henry Aaron’s home run record are racially motivated are outrageous and irresponsible.

Any objective and honest study would find equal disdain for Sammy Sosa, who at last look is Hispanic, and for Mark McGwire, who certainly seems to be white. Pete Rose, who is banned from baseball and thus ineligible for the Hall of Fame, is also white.

The conclusion is that we do not respect, and will not honor, cheaters and liars, regardless of race, creed, or color. Barry Bonds’ limited number of supporters are merely cloaking themselves in the mantle of racism in order to try to cloud the real issue, which is that, despite all his talent, he has cheated and lessened the game.

As long as we’re being objective and honest, let’s look at how the players Mr. G references before the drug and gambling scandals caught up with them:

Before he charmed the world with his 66 homers and Pepsi adverts, Sammy Sosa was not the beloved cartoon character he turned into. When he was a member of the White Sox, many pundits considered him an uncoachable malcontent. He took a lot of criticism (some deserved, some not) during his first six years as a Cub for being a selfish player who torpedoed the Cubs’ chances to win with his desire to pad his own stats.

McGwire was an all-American hero who led the A’s to three consecutive World Series appearances. When the andro was found in his locker, hordes of people leapt to his defense, outraged that anyone would dare taint his awesome assault on the record book.

Jim and I have vowed not to mention Charlie Hustler, so I’ll make this as brief as possible. The Hustler claimed his innocence for nearly twenty years. That fraud was swallowed hook, line, and sinker by thousands of fans and journamalists. Right up until the time he admitted that he had been lying.

Finally, I remember Bonds bashing as far back as 1990, during the Pirates’ last period of excellence. The scripts about Bonds’ surly, selfish ways got their start back then. Also making the rounds – whispers of his unsavory actions in college, as further explored by Jeff Pearlman and others. There were some people who swore on a stack of Bibles that Bobby Bonilla was a much, much better player than Bonds (no, that last bit is not relevant to the topic, but it’s always amazed me).

If you’re scoring at home, that’s two white guys who got the benefit of the doubt, and two not-white guys who were treated with “aversion, disinterest, and/or disgust.” Bonds and Sosa were taking heat long before they began bashing at home run records.

It certainly could just be coincidence. This is not even close to being a rigorous study of public attitudes towards these four players. And there have been white players lambasted for being selfish jerks, just as there have been black players lauded for their achievements.

But as much as we like to pretend, our society is not color-blind (recent debates over whether Barack Obama is “black enough” to connect with black voters is the latest example of that). It is disingenuous to say that race has absolutely nothing to do with Bonds’ issues. Just as it is disingenuous to say that race has absolutely everything to with them.