It Hurts to Be in Spring Training Camp

I don't know if I'm just paying more attention to this kind of stuff than I used to, but it seems to me that there are a lot of odd injuries cropping up the last week or two:

** Felix Pie got some Cub Fans' undies in a twist by...errrr...twisting something he keeps in his undies.

** Rocco Baldelli's downright scary ailment -- which the New York Daily News described as "a rare metabolic, mitochondrial abnormality in which not enough adenosine triphosphate - a molecule that acts as an energy carrier within cells - is getting to his muscles." Yikes. Although some folks don't consider it so much "scary" as "hilarious."

** Baseball Weekly reports that Coco Crisp has contended not only with "a pair of balky groin muscles," but he's also had a root canal. That, if you'll pardon the expression, must bite.

** No, we weren't surprised that Juan Gonzalez got hurt. Neither were we surprised when Jim Edmonds tripped in the batter's box and strained his calf.

** Finally, and almost as scary as the Baldelli thing, is Noah Lowry's "exertional compartmental syndrome." I'm not a doctor, but I know a lot about the English language -- and any time you get two words with the -al suffix strung together before the word "syndrome," it can't be good.

Although you gotta figure that if Lowry were a Cub, his condition would score 9.37 kilo-smirks on Sully's injury scale...

I've got no grand point to tie this all together. Just struck me as quite a week for the injury lists...

San Diego Padres 2008 Preview: Sins of the Padres

2007...the year that sucked/was groovy (pick one)

The 2007 Padres spent 43 days in first place and finished 89-74, but Padres fan can be forgiven for thinking that the year sucked anyway. Needing one win on the final Saturday or Sunday to nail down a postseason spot, Padres legend Trevor Hoffman blew a save on Saturday at Milwaukee (ironically on a triple by the son of Padres legend Tony Gwynn); the Pads lost that day and were blown out the next. That pushed them into a 163rd game at Denver to decide the wild card spot; after scoring two runs in the top of the 13th to take the lead, Hoffman blew the save again and the Padres went home for the winter. Over the winter management turned over three lineup spots and two more in the rotation.

They can put it on the board, yes! no! maybe!

They could in 2007, although it doesn't look like it. Petco Park is the anti-Coors; it depressed offense last year by about 12%. The Padres scored only 3.99 runs per game at home, but were fourth in the league in road scoring at 5.10 runs per game. The teams' best hitter, Adrian Gonzalez, is a perfect example of the trend; he had a batting line of .266-.335-.424 at home, but was .295-.358-.570 in road games, driving in 64 runs away from home. Brian Giles hit 12 of his 13 homers on the road; Kevin Kouzmanoff, 13 of his 18.

LF Brian Giles
2B Tadhito Iguchi
3B Kevin Kouzmanoff
1B Adrian Gonzalez
SS Khalil Greene
CF Jim Edmonds
C Josh Bard
RF Scott Hairston

Even at his advanced age, Giles is still an effective hitter, posting a .361 on-base percentage. Kouzmanoff got his rookie season off to a horrid start but batted .317-.366-.524 after the all-star break. Gonzalez is one of the best hitters in the league, a fact masked by his home park. Edmonds can't be counted on for more than 100 games and is declining fast. I think that the Padres will score a few more runs in 2008 than in 2007, but not a significant amount.

Pitchers, or belly itchers?

The Padres led the league in fewest runs allowed in 2007. There's that park again. In home games, the Padres allowed a full run less than the next best team. However, on the road they were mediocre; eighth best out of 16. Jake Peavy won the Cy Young and deserved it; his league-best 2.54 ERA broke out to 2.51 at home and 2.57 on the road. However, second banana Chris Young's home/road ERA split was 1.69/4.52 and Greg Maddux went 3.59/4.65. Hoffman's two season ending blown saves are more understandable when you check his home/away splits: 1.80/4.84.

SP Jake Peavy
SP Chris Young
SP Greg Maddux
SP Randy Wolf
SP lots of wishcasting

CL Trevor Hoffman
RP Heath Bell
RP Cla Meredith

Peavy, Johan Santana, Brandon Webb, and Roy Oswalt are the elite starters in the NL. Young is a decent pitcher and I think that his home/road differential will improve this year. Between age and injuries the three remaining spots will stay interesting. The Padres are really, really hoping that Mark Prior will finally be healthy enough to pitch at least part of this season; I'm sure that Bob wishes them good luck with that. For some reason they have invited Shawn Estes and Glendon Rusch into camp to compete for the fifth starter spot; I'm sure Bob wishes them good luck with that, too. The Padres have made a strength out of the bullpen for several years now by finding castoffs that get the job done; Heath Bell and Cla Meredith were found this way and will again set up Hoffman.

On a side note, the Padres have apparently made a spot on the 40-man roster for Che Guevara, the famous Argentinian revolutionary. Guevara, well-known for his role in the Cuban revolution, was thought to have been killed in Bolivia in 1967. At age 80, he will compete with Kevin Cameron, Wil Ledesma, and Clay Hensley for a spot in the bullpen.

Oh wait, that's actually Carlos Guevara, a 26-year old rookie from Texas. Never mind.

Witnesses for the defense

The Pad people were a good defensive team in 2007, third in the league in defensive efficiency and posting an above average fielding percentage. I'm not sure I see them as being as good in 2008. The aging Edmonds is replacing Mike Cameron in center; that's a hit to the defense. Iguchi is not a plus second baseman, and Hairston is a converted infielder playing right. Moving Giles from right to left is a plus; he no longer has either the range nor the arm for right.

Farm aid

The Padres signed Iguchi to cover second for just a year; Matt Antonelli should take over the spot in 2009 and will be good. Third baseman Chase (that's) Headley and first baseman Kyle Blanks are good prospects but both are blocked by good young regulars at the big league level. If the Padres are in a pennant race this year either might be moved. Outfielder Kellen Kulbacki is a solid bat but is a few years away. Lefthander Wade Leblanc could be a midseason reinforcement for the rotation.

Watch out for that tree!

Lots to worry about here. Edmonds will choose to crash into the tree rather than pull up and play the ball off the trunk; that style of play combined with his age (38) will put him on the DL at least once this year. His offense has fallen in steps each of the last three years; his OPS+ since 2004 are 170, 137, 110, and 88. The Padres may be unpleasantly surprised by the next number in this sequence. Maddux isn't going to be helped by the changes in the defense, but I think he's probably got another year or so in him before the breakdown comes. Giles showed in road games last year that he still has a bit of power, but if he loses that he's no longer an asset. Hoffman is very carefully protected; he pitched less than an inning per game last year. All his peripheral stats were far worse on the road last year; he may hit the wall this year, and he's going to hit it hard when he does. Wolf, Prior, Estes, and Rusch have warning labels right on the box.

I can make a hat, or a broach...

If we agree to forget about the Giants (which is easy), the NL West has four very competitive teams. I would tend to put them into two tiers; the Dodgers and Diamondbacks in the first, and the Padres and Rockies in the second. The first tier teams look a bit better, but both are perfectly capable of screwing themselves up (the Dodgers through bad management, the Snakes by the lack of development of young players). That leaves plenty of room for the second tier teams to sneak past them. The Pads are going to have to have luck on their side, however, and adding a Jim Edmonds at this stage of his career is just asking for bad luck. The worst part of this is that they seem to have no backup plan. Despite a recent mlb.com article touting the Padres improved bench, I can't see much depth. Signing Tony Clark is all well and good, but when your first baseman is one of the best in the league, a lefthanded hitter, and plays every game, what good is having Tony Clark? Kevin Towers needs to find some depth for the outfield, because Edmonds and Giles need plenty of nap time. A team with Peavy, Gonzalez, and Kouzmanoff is going to be pretty decent no matter what, but a couple of injuries could cause the wheels to come off fast.

I want to close by saying that I am rooting a bit for the Padres simply on the basis of having Callix Crabbe on the roster. Because how can you root against a guy named Callix Crabbe?

Grin and Barrett Part II

Saw this nugget of joy from The Sporting News’ Stan McNeal last week:

One thing to keep in mind about next Tuesday's nonwaiver trading deadline: Deals don't always help teams. Last month, the Cubs sent C Michael Barrett to the Padres for C Rob Bowen, who went 2-for-31 and was dumped on the A's for C Jason Kendall. Back in the N.L. Central, Kendall, a longtime Pirate, was hitless in his first eight at-bats with the Cubs and was booed near the end of his first game.

Just for the record: the Barrett trade went down on 21 June. Since then, the Cubs’ record stands at 26-12 (not counting tonight’s game, which is in progress as I write this). The Padres’ mark in the same time period is 19-21.

The Cubs were 8 and a half games behind Milwaukee when the trade was made. Now, we’re a game out of first. San Diego was in first place before they got Barrett. Now, they trail Arizona by a game and a half.

I don’t mean to sound like I’m piling on Barrett. I don’t think he’s a bad person, or a cancer in the clubhouse. Nor do I blame him for the many dumb things irate Cub Fan has blamed him for this year.

I do mean to take McNeal to task for his narrow focus. If, as many people have said, winning is what matters, why not mention in passing how the teams’ records have changed since the trade went down?

McNeal is right to point out how horrible Rob Bowen was for us. But he also failed to mention that Barrett was doing his best Bowen imitation in San Diego – to date as a Friar, Barrett has hit .227/.235/.289. That’s Ausmus bad.

And, yes, mean old Cub Fans booed Jason Kendall his first game at Wrigley. But even with the size eight collar he took to start his Cubs career, Kendall has hit .244/.354/.317 – not enough to make anyone forget Gabby Hartnett, but at least he’s getting on base enough to keep him from being totally useless.

I don’t know the Barrett deal has helped or hurt us. It might be prudent to reserve judgment until the end of the season, and not rush to give a big thumbs down after two games…

Who, Indeed?

Padres hurler Jake Peavy, discussing his new catcher:

Michael competes. That's the bottom line. He's a fierce competitor. He plays hard. I'm excited because this ballclub has gotten better by getting him. The thing he had with Zambrano – Zambrano took it to another level. As for the fight with A.J. Pierzynski, who doesn't fight with A.J. Pierzynski?

Rod Beck

The Trib's Mark Gonzales reported that former Cub, Giant, Padre, and Red Sox closer Rod Beck died today. No details were available.

Beck was one of my favorite Cubs. Not because he was terrific player, but he was a good player and better guy. Our condolences to his family and friends.

Grin and Barrett

Today's trade of Michael Barrett to the Padres was not exactly a suprise. Even before the justly-infamous scuffle with Carlos Zambrano, there were indications that Barrett was not long for the club.

Barrett was never considered a defensive whiz behind the plate, but I didn't think he was truly horrible, as many other Cub Fans did. Plus, the guy could hit a little bit. Not like Johnny Bench, but after years of Damian Miller, Benito Santiago, Hank White, and Todd Hundley, it looked pretty good.

Unfortunately, Barrett's game took several steps backward this year. His defense was getting close to that truly horrible level, and he wasn't hitting enough to make up for it.

Was he pressing because of his impending free agency? Had he started the decline phase of his career? Or were the previous two years flukes?

I'm not smart enough to tell. But, as any critic could tell you, he wasn't playing well, and if we're going to have any chance to get back in contention we need an upgrade behind the plate.

Alas, we didn't get an upgrade. Forgive me for being underwhelmed by Rob Bowen. We've already got Koyie Hill on the roster, and Hank on the DL. So by my count, that gives us three back-up catchers. Which still leaves us one catcher short.

Maybe it will turn out to be addition by subtraction. I'm not holding my breath, though.

One more thing: if the Padres win the NL West, look for one of Chicago's finest pundits to craft a "Why did the Cubs trade this guy away for nothing" column. On second thought, keep an eye out for that column if Barrett has a good week in San Diego before the All-Star Break...