Verlander

Watching the Tigers/Royals opener right now. Through three innings, Justin Verlander doesn't look like he's going to give up a hit today, or ever again.

Must be nice to have a fastball that can hit triple digits, a changeup that freezes hitters, and a curve that disappears. And to have them all working. A guy like that is going to win a lot of games for a long time.

SIlly Stuff

Been distracted the last few days, but just had to toss out some of the goofier stuff I've seen out on the internet tubes...

** The Trib's exceedingly estimable Dave van Dyck writes up Baseball Prospectus' 2008 predictions here. The sub-head reads:

Sox likely to improve; Cubs better but not good enough

Uh-oh...things sound bleak for my heroes. Let's go to the tape and see what those BP geeks have to say:

• The Sox, because of a series of off-season dealings, will rebound to 77-85 and third place in the American League Central, trailing the dominance of Cleveland and Detroit.

• The Cubs will follow their 85-victory NL Central championship with another division title, this time with a 91-71 record, second best in the National League but not enough to break their 100-year drought of winning the World Series.

Yes, there you have it, folks -- the eds at the Tower are quick to trumpet that the Sox will "improve" by five games and "rebound" to 77 wins (because of Kenny's brilliant wheeling and dealing). Meanwhile, the Cubs will schlep their way to 91 wins (without any off-season acquisitions, evidently) -- and while that six-game improvement is enough to be second-best in the league, it's just "not good enough."

To sum up, third place -- and an "improvement." Ninety wins -- sure, good enough to win the division, but ultimately a disappointment.

Tell me again about the bias, George...

** As you can imagine, whenever those pencil-necked stat geeks go after Chicago's favorites, the columnists are there, defending their own. Today, Big Mouth Morrissey cracks back on the BP predictions:

Computers have no use for heart, or least they can't quantify it. They can't analyze what's inside an athlete, for example. They can't tell you who has the heart of a lion or the backbone of an earthworm.

Imagine about 800 more words describing White Sox players as lions and Cubs players as worms, add a bizarre and unnecessary reference to Marie Osmond, and you've got yourself a column. Another triumph from the Tower of Ideas!

** Sully checks in with this medical update about Felix Pie. A few quick thoughts:

1. Not content to provide a Wikipedia link about Pie's "personal problem," Sully goes on to describe it in detail.
2. I'm no mind reader, but given Sully's admitted history, I'm betting he had a big smirk going when he heard about this.
3. Sully concludes his post with a plea for "no tasteless comments." Ummm...Sully...are you familiar with this Internet thing? And the people who usually troll the message boards?

** The March 5 issue of Baseball Weekly notes that "Josh Hamilton is causing quite a buzz in camp."

Given Hamilton's well-documented "personal problems," should we really use the term "buzz" to describe how he's doing?

** Prince Fielder is a vegetarian. Thankfully, bagels don't contain any meat.

** Will the usual suspects claim that this guy is better than A-Rod, too?

** Hey Ranger Fans -- at least it's just a minor league contract. There's hope Jon Daniels will come to his senses soon.

** I like Dusty Baker as a person. As a manager, I've found cause to disagree with him. Usually because he keeps talking about how he doesn't like it when his hitters take a free pass when it's offered...

** Finally, just a word of advice for the kids out there -- if you're bent because you got lit up on the mound, don't punch doors with your throwing hands...

Detroit Tigers 2008 Preview: Burning Bright, or Crashing and Burning?

2007...the year that sucked/was groovy (pick one)

I think that they were hoping for a little more. An 88-74 season is certainly nothing all that terrible, but when you won 95 games and played in the World Series the year before, it can be considered a bit of a disappointment. Magglio Ordonez had a monster season, and Carlos Guillen, Curtis Granderson, Placido Polanco, and Justin Verlander were all outstanding as well, but the rest of the rotation collapsed and Gary Sheffield did not provide all of the power that the Tigers were hoping for. They also were using a first baseman who hit four home runs in 143 games and a left fielder with a .264 on base percentage. Over the winter the Tigers ditched that dynamic duo and traded for one of the ten best hitters in the game.

They can put it on the board, yes! no! maybe!

They can and did. The 2007 Tigers scored more runs than any team in the AL other than the Yankees. They scored about the same number of runs at home and on the road. Management cleared out the dead wood (Craig Monroe, Sean Casey, Brandon Inge) and replaced them with better hitters; in the case of Miguel Cabrera, a way, way better hitter.

CF Curtis Granderson
2B Placido Polanco
DH Gary Sheffield
RF Maggilo Ordonez
3B Miguel Cabrera
1B Carlos Guillen
SS Edgar Rentaria
LF Jacque Jones/Marcus Thames
C Ivan Rodriguez

A lot of people are looking at the individual stats that these guys put up in 2007 and thinking that the Tigers will score 1000 runs. A few silly people are even saying that this is the best offense of all time. It's not, and they won't score 1000 runs or even get close. Cabrera is an awesome hitter, but Ordonez and Polanco can't reasonably be expected to hit .363 and .341 again. That doesn't mean that they will be bad; I'm sure that they will both be above average offensive players in 2008. It does mean that they will regress closer to their career records. But this team doesn't have to score more to win more games. Staying right where they were will be fine. It's the pitching that needs the fixin'.

Pitchers, or belly itchers?

The Tigers went into the 2007 season thinking that they had a strong, deep group of pitchers. They had allowed the fewest runs in the AL in 2006 with a solid core of starters and a terrific bullpen. Not much of that worked out for them in 2007. Between injuries and ineffectiveness, the Tigers allowed over 100 runs more than the previous year, finishing ninth in the league. Jeremy Bonderman gets extra credit from me for screwing up several of my fantasy teams, as well.

SP Justin Verlander
SP Kenny Rogers
SP Jeremy Bonderman
SP Dontrell Willis
SP Nate Robertson

CL Todd Jones
RP Fernando Rodney
RP Bobby Seay

Verlander took major steps towards being one of the best starters in the AL, increasing his strikeout rate while lowering both his walks and hits allowed rates. Rogers is 43 years old and was hurt for most of 2007. Bonderman had elbow issues and needs to be watched closely this spring. I know that everyone love Dontrell Willis, but let's face some facts here: in 2007 he had a 5.17 ERA, allowed 241 hits in 205 innings, and his K/BB ratios aren't anything special. This could certainly be at least a league average rotation if everything goes well, but there is a very good chance of another flameout.

Witnesses for the defense

Granderson is a terrific defensive centerfielder. Polanco managed to play 141 games at second base and not make a single error. Inge was a better than average third baseman; replacing him with Cabrera is a bit of a defensive loss (although made up for in spades by the offensive upgrade). Jones in left is an improvement over Monroe. Moving Guillen to first and replacing him with Rentaria is another gain. Overall the defense is one of the better ones in the AL.

Farm aid

If you want to find the better prospects from the Tigers system, you might want to check in Atlanta and Florida, which is where they are now. I can't really fault them for giving up Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller when the chance arose to obtain Cabrera; however, if the Tigers don't win with Cabrera now they may well kick themselves later. There is very little immediate help forthcoming. Dallas Trahearn might get a shot if the starters break down; ditto Eulogio de la Cruz and Yorman Bazardo in the bullpen. There are no position players anywhere near the majors.

Watch out for that tree!

Ivan Rodriguez is a Hall of Famer in waiting. He's also 36 years old, has caught 2061 major league games, and had a .294 on base percentage last year. His offensive value is largely tied up in his batting average, although he did hit 31 doubles and 11 homers in 2007. He could very well put up a batting line of .255-.270-.380 this year. Gary Sheffield's slugging averages since 2003 have been .604, .534, .512, .450, .462, a trend that neither his age (39) nor Comerica Park are likely to help him break. If his bat slows down at the same rate, he's got a .430 slugging average in his near future, although his walks still help him to have value. Kenny Rogers had a reasonably good September and may have another season left, but he could just as easily have one of those 6.65 ERA seasons that tell a pitcher in no uncertain terms that time is up. I don't know how Todd Jones got through last year, much less how he wracked up 38 saves. I'm not sure he knows, either. Jones could have a similar year, or he might run his ERA over 6.00 and be replaced. If I were a betting man, I'd go for the latter.

Usually I don't put 23 year olds in this category, but I'd like to state my opinion that pitchers who injure themselves playing guitar hero and moving boxes at home aren't likely to match the longevity of, say, a Goose Gossage.

I can make a hat, or a broach...

After the Cabrera trade, many immediately projected the Tigers as the team to beat in 2008. I'm not so sure. There are an awful lot of question marks here, especially in the rotation and the bullpen. The Tigers won 88 games with a bad to mediocre staff last year, so any improvement should push them at least 4-5 games in the standings. A healthy Bonderman living up to his stuff would move them forward even more. I think that Bonderman, Willis, and Nate Robertson are all capable of and will be better in 2008, so I'm going to go with the upside. But it's not the sure thing that a lot of people think that it is.

Nice Going, Neifi

I think Sooze at Babes Love Baseball sums it up best…

Oops

Neifi Perez busted for popping greenies? And for the second time, since the twenty-five game suspension only kicks in on the second offense.

Geez, it's bad enough he's a lousy player. But to be dumb enough to flunk the pee test twice kicks him up to a whole new level of incompetence...

Drafting Fool

Despite MLB and ESPN's best efforts, I failed to pay much attention to the amateur draft last week. Maybe I'm just short-sighted, but I can't get excited about the latest hot-shot high school kid or college grad. Since it's not my job to project which guys will develop into viable big leaguers, I can just sit back and see what happens over the next few years.

Although I am content to take a wait-and-see approach, some folks don't have that luxury. Folks like the esteemed Trib scribe Dr. Phil.

Read his take on the draft, if you dare. If you don't have the time, here's a recap: Why are the Cubs and White Sox so dumb? Why can't they be smart like the Tigers?

They Make a Lot of Money Because They Spend a Lot of Money

I can’t remember which NBA player coined the phrase I cribbed for the title of this post, but Todd Jones proves that he was right in this column…